CR Belouizdad vs ES Mostaganem: match statistics

CR Belouizdad are the favorites: they have scored 28 and conceded 17 this season, and at home they average 1.36 goals with an average xG of 1.8, while ES Mostaganem have only 15 scored and 32 conceded. In attack the hosts average 13.27 shots and 6.18 on target per home game with a conversion rate of 10%, whereas the visitors on the road average 5.82 shots and 2.36 on target with a 5% conversion. In the last 5 matches CR Belouizdad conceded 3 goals (0.6 per game), while ES Mostaganem conceded 13 goals (2.6 per game); additionally the visitors’ average goals conceded on the road is 1.33. The visitors have yet to win away (0% wins), register 92% away losses and 83% of away games without scoring, which significantly lowers their prospects. Considering the xG advantage (1.8 vs 0.89), superior possession (58% vs 44%) and higher average points in the last 5 matches (1.6 vs 0.8), I tip a home win; probabilities: home 78%, draw 12%, away 10%.

Seasonal indicators show BTTS occurs for CR Belouizdad in 33% of matches and for ES Mostaganem in only 17%, while the league BTTS average is 46% and the league clean sheet rate is 64%. In the last 5 matches both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, but defensive details diverge: the visitors conceded an average of 2.6 goals per game (13 in 5), while the home side only 0.6 goals (3 in 5), suggesting a home advantage in keeping a clean sheet. The home attack is more efficient — recent home xG is 1.67 versus 1.16 allowed, average shots on target are 4.25 vs 2.36 for the visitors, and the visitors’ shot conversion is only 5% compared to 10% for the home team. Additionally, the hosts have scored 28 and conceded 17 this season, while the visitors have 15 scored and 32 conceded; given the visitors’ seasonal 0.25 goals per game and low seasonal BTTS of 17%, the stronger signal points to No Goal/No BTTS. On this basis I assign BTTS probability ~30% (Yes) vs 70% (No) and recommend a 'no' bet.

xG-based model — averaging home xG 1.30 and xG conceded by the visitors 1.69 yields 1.50 goals for CR Belouizdad, while averaging away xG 0.89 and xG conceded by the hosts 1.31 yields 1.10 for ES Mostaganem, totaling 2.60 goals. Both teams have a high share of matches with at least one goal (Over 0.5 = 92% for both), and the hosts average 9.67 shots and 4.25 on target versus 5.82 and 2.36 for the visitors, which increases the likelihood of goals. Crucially, Mostaganem have conceded 13 goals in the last 5 matches (2.6 per game) while CR Belouizdad have conceded only 3 in their last 5 (0.6 per game), raising the risk of a higher-scoring match. Converting the expected goals total 2.60 into a Poisson distribution gives approximately a 73% chance of Over 1.5, 48% for Over 2.5 and 26% for Over 3.5. The best pick is Over 1.5 — it has the highest probability (73%) and combines the hosts’ shooting advantage with the visitors’ clear defensive issues.

I select the scenario Draw at Half-Time / Home win (X/1) because the home side recorded a draw at the break in 67% of matches while the visitors have never led at halftime (0%). The home team hold an offensive advantage: xG 1.30 versus the visitors' 0.89, averaging 9.67 shots to 5.82 and 4.25 on target to 2.36, which increases their likelihood of scoring after the break. In the first half the home side average 0.50 goals and the visitors 0.00, whereas in the second half the home team average 1.50 goals to the visitors' 1.00, so decisive outcomes often occur after halftime. Additionally, the visitors lose 92% of fixtures and have no wins (0%), while the hosts have a 33% seasonal win rate, reinforcing the probability of a final victory for the home team.