CR Khemis Zemamra vs Raja Casablanca: match statistics

Raja Casablanca sits 3rd in the table versus CR Khemis Zemamra in 7th; this season Raja has 12 wins and 5 losses while the hosts have 9 wins and 10 losses. Goal tallies are 27:12 (Raja) vs 23:28 (CR), translating to +15 versus -5 goal difference. Offensive metrics favor the visitors: on average 3.55 shots on target per away match versus 2.58 for the hosts, shot conversion 11% vs 8% and lower FTS 27% vs 42%, meaning Raja creates and converts chances more often. Despite similar xG (xG For 1.19 for Raja vs 1.17 for the hosts and xG Against 1.33 vs 1.34), the visitors’ defense is significantly better in practice (12 goals conceded versus 28 for the hosts) and they have a higher clean sheet rate (55% vs 50%). The hosts, however, have performed better in the last 5 matches (PPG 1.4 and 4 goals scored vs Raja’s 0.8 PPG and 2 goals), but considering the season-long superiority in quality and efficiency of the visitors, I forecast an away win.

I forecast BTTS - No with a 75% probability versus 25% for Yes. Both teams have low seasonal BTTS rates: 23% (CR Khemis Zemamra) and 27% (Raja Casablanca), compared to a league average of 51%, indicating matches without both teams scoring are significantly more common for them. This is supported by high clean sheet rates: 62% for the home side and 55% for the away side, and low average goals in the last 5 matches — home scoring 0.8 on average, away 0.4, with total goals in the last 5 being 4 and 2 respectively. Seasonal xG favors the home team (xG 1.56 vs 1.19), and xG against demonstrates a solid home defense (0.81 vs 1.33). Although the home team attempts more shots (12.62 vs 9.0) and more shots on target (4.54 vs 3.55), the away team’s poor finishing and the high incidence of clean sheets point toward a NO outcome.

The xG-based model (opponent-adjusted attack and defense averages) yields 1.45 expected goals for CR Khemis Zemamra (xG attack 1.56 vs. opponents conceding 1.33) and 1.00 for Raja Casablanca (xG attack 1.19 vs. opponents conceding 0.81), totaling 2.45 goals. Seasonally, Over 2.5 is rare for these teams: 15% for the home side and 9% for the away side (avg ~12%), while the league sees 38% — both clubs are therefore below league level. Additionally, the home team records 62% clean sheets, the away team 55%, and both teams scoring occurs in only 23% and 27% of matches respectively — a strong argument for fewer goals. Over 1.5 is more likely (seasonally 46% and 64% for the two teams, and in the last 5 matches they combined for 6 goals: 4 for the home side and 2 for the away), so I assign roughly 63% to Over 1.5. Given the expected 2.45 goals and very low seasonal Over 3.5 rates (8% and 0%), I recommend playing Under 2.5 (I rate Under ~80%, Over ~20%).

A half-time draw appears most likely: in the last 5 matches both teams were level at the break in 60% of cases (last 5: 60% home, 60% away), and the average first-half goals in those five fixtures is 0.8 for the home side and 0.4 for the visitors. After the interval the home team holds the advantage – CR Khemis scores on average 0.69 goals in second halves and has accumulated 22 points in second halves with an average of 1.69 points, while Raja concedes on average 0.64 goals after the break and averages 1.18 points in second halves. Seasonal metrics also favor the hosts: season points per match are 1.92 versus 1.64 for the visitors, home xG is 1.56 versus Raja’s 1.19, and the home defense allows 0.81 xG against on average versus 1.33 xG for the away defense. Additionally, the percentage of matches in which both teams score is low (23% home, 27% away), which increases the likelihood of a low-scoring half-time draw and a second-half turnaround in favor of the home side; for this reason I select X/1 as the strongest signal (36%).