Criciúma vs Cuiabá: match statistics

Criciúma have a clear home advantage: they have won 58% of their home matches, lost just 8%, and concede an average of only 0.50 goals per game. The hosts also create more chances, averaging 16.08 shots and an xG of 1.72, while Cuiabá record 10.67 shots and an xG of 1.15 away from home. Criciúma have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their home matches, whereas Cuiabá have failed to score in as many as 50% of their away fixtures, which could limit their chances. However, the current trend must also be considered: Criciúma have scored just 3 goals and lost 3 of their last 5 matches, while Cuiabá are unbeaten in five games, with 3 wins and 2 draws, scoring 8 goals. The hosts' superior home numbers point towards a narrow victory, but the visitors' good form clearly increases the likelihood of a draw.

Seasonal BTTS indicators are low for both sides: Criciúma has seen this outcome in 38% of its matches, while Cuiabá stands at 42%, compared with 48% across the league. The hosts score only 0.85 goals on average and keep a clean sheet in 46% of matches, which significantly increases the likelihood of Cuiabá failing to score. Cuiabá averages 1.00 goal per game but ends without scoring in as many as 50% of its matches, while Criciúma concedes just 0.69 goals per game. The visitors’ last five matches did produce BTTS in 80% of cases; however, Criciúma scored only 3 goals during this period, or 0.6 per game. The hosts’ higher xG of 1.72 compared with Cuiabá’s 1.15 suggests a Criciúma advantage, but more importantly, a result with only one team scoring is more likely than goals at both ends. This supports BTTS - No rather than BTTS - Yes, without implying an automatic 0:0 or that neither team will score.

The season profile clearly points to a low-scoring game: 92% of Criciúma’s matches and 67% of Cuiabá’s matches finished with Under 2.5 goals. The 3.5-goal line was respected in 92% and 83% of cases respectively, while neither team recorded a match with more than 4.5 goals this season. Criciúma concede just 0.69 goals per game at home and keep a clean sheet in 46% of matches, whereas Cuiabá average 1.00 goal scored away from home. The hosts do create chances worth 1.72 xG per match, but their conversion rate is only 5%, limiting the potential for a high-scoring game. Cuiabá’s stronger recent form, with 1.6 goals scored per game across their last five appearances, increases the likelihood of 2–3 goals in total, but the strongest option remains Under 3.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Cuiabá win, as both teams very frequently draw in the first half: Criciúma in 62% of matches and Cuiabá in as many as 75%. The opening stages are expected to be cautious, with the hosts averaging 0.31 goals scored and 0.23 conceded before the break, while the visitors score 0.33 goals per first half. After the break, the advantage in current form clearly shifts towards Cuiabá: across their last five matches, they have averaged 1.2 goals after half-time, won the second half in 80% of cases, and have not lost any of those matches. Over the same period, Criciúma have a 60% loss rate, score just 0.6 goals per match, and manage only 0.2 goals after the break, supporting an outcome in favor of the visitors after an evenly matched start.