Criciúma vs Londrina: match statistics

I predict a home win (1). Criciúma averages 1.5 goals scored and concedes only 0.75 goals per home match, with average xG 1.86 versus xG against 1.36; they register 18.5 shots and 4.5 on target with 58% possession, and their share of matches without scoring is 0%. Londrina away averages 1.33 goals scored and concedes 1.83, with xG 1.21 and xG against 1.74; they average 11.33 shots and 3.5 on target, finish 50% of away matches goalless and have no clean sheets (0%). In the last 5 matches both teams have scored 5 goals each, but Criciúma’s record is 1 win and 4 draws with 4 conceded (1.4 points per match), while Londrina have 1 win and 4 losses with 11 conceded (0.6 points per match), highlighting the visitors’ inferior defensive form. Considering superior ball control, higher xG, greater shot volume and a significantly better home goal differential, I assess chances at 70% for Criciúma, 20% for a draw and 10% for a Londrina win.

Both teams show seasonal BTTS rates of 60% (Criciúma) and 50% (Londrina), giving a seasonal average of 55%. In the last 5 matches Criciúma has 80% BTTS versus Londrina's 40% (5-match average 60%). Defenses point toward goals: Londrina has no clean sheets this season (0%) and concedes on average 1.83 goals this season and 2.2 in the last 5 matches, while Criciúma concedes 1.6 goals this season and only 0.8 in the last 5. In terms of quality of chances xG is similar (xG_for 1.25 for Criciúma vs 1.21 for Londrina), and Londrina is more efficient in finishing (conversion rate 12% vs 7%) with a seasonal goals average of 1.33, which increases their likelihood to score. Considering the 55% seasonal rate, 60% in the last 5 matches, Londrina’s 0% clean sheets and high 12% finishing efficiency, I tip BTTS - Yes with a probability of 68% versus 32% for No.

The model based on average xG forecasts 1.50 for Criciúma (xG attack 1.25 vs Londrina xG defense 1.74) and 1.33 for Londrina (xG attack 1.21 vs Criciúma xG defense 1.44), totaling approximately 2.83 expected goals. Seasonal goal averages are 0.8 for Criciúma and 1.33 for Londrina with conceded averages of 1.6 and 1.83; Londrina also has a higher shot conversion rate of 12% versus Criciúma’s 7% with a similar average number of shots (Criciúma 11.6, Londrina 11.33), which increases their chance to realize xG. Season-to-date matches ended Over 2.5 goals in 60% for Criciúma and 83% for Londrina, and in the last 5 fixtures these rates were 20% (Criciúma) and 80% (Londrina); together with the combined xG of 2.83 this argues for Over 2.5. Admittedly Criciúma conceded only 0.8 goals on average in the last 5 matches, but Londrina conceded 2.2 on average in their last 5, and the season percentage of BTTS is 60% for Criciúma and 50% for Londrina, so there are realistic chances for goals from both sides. As a result, my strongest signal is Over on the 2.5 line (probability ~68%); Over 1.5 I estimate at ~85%, while Over 3.5 is less likely (~30%).

I expect a draw at half-time: Criciúma were level at the break in 60% of their matches, and the average goals by half are 0.4 for the home side versus 0.17 for Londrina, indicating a low first-half intensity. For full-time a draw is more likely because both teams’ xG are very close (1.25 for Criciúma vs 1.21 for Londrina), and the seasonal goals-per-game averages are 0.8 (home) and 1.33 (away), which favors a shared points outcome. The hosts’ last five matches show a record of 4 draws and 1 win (form 'ddddw', 80% draws in the last five), whereas Londrina have the sequence 'llwll' and concede an average of 2.2 goals in their last five; despite better shot conversion (12% vs the visitors’ 7%), their defensive form reduces the likelihood of a convincing victory. Therefore I weight the X/X scenario highest (30%), followed by X/2 (22%) and X/1 (8%): the high incidence of leads at the break being draws (60%) and the comparable xG support a half-time draw, although Londrina’s finishing gives a real chance of a turnaround in the second half.