Crusaders vs Larne: match statistics

Larne have won all 5 of their last matches, scoring 12 goals and conceding just 3, while Crusaders have recorded 2 wins and 3 losses, with a 6:8 goal difference. The visitors create more chances away from home, averaging 10 shots and 6 on target per match compared with the hosts’ 7.2 and 3 at home, and their xG stands at 1.52 versus 1.09. Crusaders’ home advantage remains a factor: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches there and score an average of 2.2 goals per game. However, Larne concede an average of just 0.67 goals away from home and have kept a clean sheet in 67% of those matches, so despite the hosts’ strong home form, I give the visitors the better chance.

BTTS has landed in 33% of Crusaders' home matches and 33% of Larne's away matches, while both teams kept a clean sheet in 67% of games under these conditions. Larne's defense is a particularly strong argument against a home goal: they concede an average of 0.67 goals away from home, and have conceded just 3 goals in total across their last five matches overall. Over the same period, Crusaders averaged 1.2 goals scored, but created chances worth only 0.77 xG per match. Larne look more threatening in attack, averaging 2.4 goals scored in their last five games, while Crusaders conceded 1.6 goals per match over that run. Therefore, the likelier scenario is that Larne score, but at least one team—especially the hosts—fails to find the net. This supports BTTS - No: it means at least one team will not score, not necessarily a 0-0 draw.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been exceeded in Crusaders' matches and has held in 67% of Larne's matches. Both teams have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games, limiting the chances of a four-goal or higher total. Larne do, however, boast a potent attack, averaging 2.4 goals across their last 5 matches, while Crusaders have conceded 1.6, making the 2.5 line less compelling. Meanwhile, Crusaders' recent xG is just 0.77 per match, and Larne concede an average of 0.65 xG, which weighs against a high home-team goal tally. The 2.55-goal forecast factors in the visitors' attacking form but points to stronger value on Under 3.5 than Under 2.5 goals.

Larne have won their last five matches, while Crusaders have lost three of their last five, favouring an away win. Larne led at the break in three of those five matches, while Crusaders went into half-time trailing in two of five; their average first-half goals scored were 1.2 and 0.2, respectively. Their ability to maintain a lead is supported by their form after the break: Larne won the second half in four of their last five matches and conceded an average of 0.2 goals in those halves, compared with 1.2 for Crusaders. The risk to the 2/2 pick is the hosts’ home form—in the three matches considered, they did not concede before half-time—so a draw at the break followed by a Larne win remains a close alternative. Nevertheless, the visitors’ stronger recent results and effectiveness in both halves make Larne leading at half-time and winning at full-time the single most likely scenario.