Crystal Palace vs Liverpool: match statistics

Liverpool are the favorites: they have won 3 of their 4 away matches, while Crystal Palace have lost 3 of their 4 home games. The visitors have also won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 9 goals in the process; the hosts have managed just 1 win over the same period, scoring 3 goals and conceding 11. The defensive gap is clear: Palace concede an average of 2.5 goals per home game and have yet to keep a clean sheet, while Liverpool concede 0.75 goals away from home and keep a clean sheet in half of their matches. The quality of chances created also favors the visitors, whose away xG stands at 1.88 compared with the hosts’ 1.37 at home. Given this combination of attacking efficiency, a stronger defense and a positive away trend, a Liverpool win is the most likely outcome.

The strongest signal points to Crystal Palace failing to score: the hosts have been kept off the scoresheet in 60% of their home matches, while Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their away games. Palace average 0.8 goals at home and have managed just 0.6 goals per game across their last 5 matches, with an xG of 0.84. Liverpool have a much stronger attack, averaging 1.75 goals away from home and 1.8 goals across their last 5 games, making it less likely that the visitors will fail to score. A counterpoint is Palace’s home xG average of 1.54 and Liverpool’s average of 1.2 goals conceded recently, which leaves a genuine chance of the hosts finding the net. Even so, BTTS has landed in only 20% of Palace’s home matches, so the more likely scenario is BTTS - No, meaning at least one team will fail to score.

Liverpool have the stronger attacking potential, averaging 1.75 goals from an xG of 1.88, while Crystal Palace score 0.8 goals from an xG of 1.54. Palace have scored just 3 goals in their last 5 matches, compared with Liverpool’s 9, although the home side have conceded as many as 11 goals over that span. Despite Palace’s defensive weakness, 80% of the hosts’ matches and 75% of the visitors’ matches have finished Under 3.5 goals. In addition, Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches, while Palace have failed to score in 60% of theirs, limiting the likelihood of a high-scoring game. Therefore, with a projected total of 2.50 goals, Under 3.5 goals is the strongest pick.

A draw at half-time followed by a Liverpool win at full-time is the most likely outcome. Crystal Palace were level at the break in 40% of their matches, while Liverpool went into half-time level in 40% of their last five games; their average first-half goals scored are 0.4 and 0.5, respectively. After the break, the visitors’ advantage is more pronounced: they score an average of 1.25 goals, while the hosts concede 0.8 goals in this period. Liverpool have won 75% of their matches, compared with Crystal Palace’s 20% win rate, and average 1.88 xG against the hosts’ 1.54. These figures point to a result in the visitors’ favor, although their modest first-half scoring means I rate the X/2 scenario slightly higher than Liverpool leading from the outset.