CS Marítimo vs Casa Pia: match statistics

Casa Pia sit higher in the away standings, in 4th place compared with CS Marítimo’s 6th position in the home table. In their last five matches, the visitors have collected 8 points from 2 wins and 2 draws, while the hosts have earned 6 points and lost 3 times. The key difference lies in defense: Casa Pia have conceded just 2 goals during this period, compared with 8 for Marítimo. The hosts have been slightly more effective in front of goal, scoring 6 times against the visitors’ 4, but their goal difference across the five matches stands at -2, whereas Casa Pia’s is +2. Casa Pia’s defensive solidity and four-match unbeaten run point to a narrow away win, although two draws in their last five outings increase the likelihood of the points being shared.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Casa Pia have conceded an average of just 0.4 goals per match over their last 5 games, allowing opponents only 2 goals in total. The visitors averaged 0.8 goals scored during this period, while BTTS occurred in only 20% of their matches, increasing the likelihood that one side will fail to score. Marítimo have a higher BTTS rate of 60%, but they are scoring only 1.2 goals per match and have lost 3 of their last 5 games. Although Casa Pia’s xG of 1.39 suggests the potential to score, the visitors’ solid defense and low BTTS profile support a scenario in which at least one team fails to find the net.

Available data from the last five matches points to moderate scoring potential: Marítimo averaged 1.2 goals, while Casa Pia averaged 0.8. Casa Pia conceded only 2 goals during this period, or 0.4 per match, which clearly limits the outlook for the home side despite their 6 goals in five appearances. The away team had 0% of matches finishing Over 2.5 goals and only 20% of games featuring goals from both teams; meanwhile, Marítimo went Over 2.5 goals in 60% of cases but conceded an average of 1.6 goals. The away side’s xG stands at 1.39, with xG against Marítimo at 1.09, so their projected contribution is slightly higher than the hosts’, but the total forecast remains at 2.20 goals. The Under 3.5 goals line offers the strongest edge, as Casa Pia’s defensive run and both teams’ low scoring output make a scenario involving four or more goals unlikely.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Casa Pia win after the match, as the visitors were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches and had not been trailing at that stage in any of them. Casa Pia conceded an average of 0.0 goals before half-time and kept a clean sheet at the break in all five of their last matches, limiting Marítimo’s chances of taking an early lead. After the interval, the hosts scored only 0.4 goals per match while conceding 1.0, and their second-half record includes as many as 60% losses. The visitors also averaged 0.4 goals after half-time, but conceded just 0.4 and won the second half in 40% of cases. Across their last five matches, Casa Pia averaged 1.6 points per game compared with Marítimo’s 1.2, while the hosts lost three of their five outings, further strengthening the visitors’ advantage in the final outcome.