Csákvári TK vs Soroksár SC: match statistics

Csákvári TK holds a clear statistical advantage at home: on average 1.71 goals scored and xG 1.68 with 13.71 shots (5.29 on target) and concedes 1.43 goals per match. Soroksár away averages only 1.29 goals and xG 1.24, registers 9.14 shots (4 on target), has just a 7% win rate on the road and a goal difference of -5 away. However, recent form over the last five matches favors the visitors: Soroksár with 3 wins and 2 draws, 8 scored and 4 conceded and 2.2 points per game, while Csákvári in their last 5 have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses with a 5:8 record and 0.8 PPG. Considering the superior xG, higher shot volume and a +4 home goal difference for the hosts, I predict a Csákvári victory, although the visitors’ form increases the likelihood of a draw or an upset.

Both teams show high BTTS rates this season: Csákvári 64% and Soroksár 79%, with last 5 matches at 60% and 80% respectively. Season goal averages indicate both sides score and concede — Csákvári scores 1.36 and concedes 1.57, Soroksár scores 1.29 and concedes 1.64, which supports a Goal/Goal scenario. In the last 5 matches Soroksár scored 8 and conceded 4 (averages 1.6 and 0.8), while Csákvári scored 5 and conceded 8 (averages 1.0 and 1.6), further increasing the likelihood of an exchange of goals. Offensive data and xG also support BTTS: xG 1.38 for the home side and 1.24 for the away, shots on target 3.64 vs 4.0, and % of matches over 2.5 goals at 57% and 71%, with the over 2.5 + BTTS combination occurring in 50% and 64% of fixtures. Considering season (64%/79%) and recent BTTS form (60%/80%), average goals conceded around 1.57–1.64 and the lack of clean sheets for the home team (0% vs 21%), I recommend BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability of 78% versus 22% for No.

I expect a total of approximately 2.89 goals (expected_goals_home = 1.50, expected_goals_away = 1.39). These values stem from average xG: the home side has offensive xG 1.38 while their opponents concede xG 1.62 against them, whereas Soroksár has offensive xG 1.24 and the hosts concede xG 1.53. This season Csákvári had Over 1.5 in 79% of matches, Soroksár in 86%, and both teams scored in 64% (home) and 79% (away) of games, which strongly supports at least two goals. Over 2.5 occurred in 57% of the hosts’ matches and 71% of the visitors’ matches, and in the last 5 games of both teams Over 2.5 was 60%, so I estimate the probability of Over 2.5 at about 62%. Over 3.5 appeared in only 36% of both teams’ matches, and a Poisson model with λ=2.89 gives the chance of 4+ goals at around 33%, therefore I recommend backing Over on the 1.5 line as the strongest signal.

Hosts frequently lead at the break: they were leading in 7 matches (50%) and average 0.79 goals by half-time while conceding only 0.29, whereas visitors led at the break in just 2 fixtures (14%) with a half-time goals average of 0.43 scored/0.64 conceded. Over the season hosts average 1.50 points per match versus 0.64 for visitors, win 43% of matches versus 7% for the away side, and have 26 points at the mid-point (an average of 1.86 points per match at half-time) compared to 13 points (an average of 0.93) for opponents. The match profile also favors the home team: hosts’ xG is 1.38 versus 1.24 for visitors and they average 11.43 shots per match versus 9.14, which increases the likelihood of converting a lead; although visitors have a slightly better shooting accuracy (14% vs 12%), their overall match efficiency remains low. Given the 50% chance of the hosts leading at half-time and their stronger seasonal metrics, the most likely Half-Time/Full-Time scenario is 1/1 (36%), with X/1 (16%) and X/X (14%) as the main alternatives.