CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Arda: match statistics
CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Arda: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
CSKA 1948 Sofia played Arda in First League (Bulgaria). The match was played on 31 July 2026. Venue: Tsarsko Selo Sports Complex. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
CSKA 1948 Sofia: 1-1-0, 2.00 points/match. Arda: 1-1-0, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
CSKA 1948 Sofia scores 2.00 and concedes 1.50 goals per match. Arda scores 1.00 and concedes 0.50. League average: 2.40 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: CSKA 1948 Sofia 100%, Arda 50%. Over 2.5: CSKA 1948 Sofia 100%, Arda 0%. League level: BTTS 67%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
CSKA 1948 Sofia has higher xG: 1.69 vs 1.27. CSKA 1948 Sofia: 11.5 shots per match, Arda: 8.0.
Match halves
CSKA 1948 Sofia: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 1.50. Arda: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 0.50.
Goals by minute
CSKA 1948 Sofia: 76-90+ (2 goals). Arda: 16-30 (1 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
First League: 2.40 goals per match, BTTS 67%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
CSKA 1948 Sofia have home advantage and markedly better creativity at home: on average 9 shots and 4 on target per match with xG 1.49, scoring an average of 2 goals per home game. Arda arrives in excellent overall form (4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 matches with 11 goals in those fixtures, averaging 2.6 points in the last 5), but away they generate only 5 shots and 2 on target with xG 0.75 and an average of 1 goal. Defensively both teams concede on average 1 goal per match; however Arda has higher average away xG against (1.71 vs 1.28 for the home side), which suggests they more often allow opponents better chances. Considering CSKA’s 100% home-win record in the match statistics and their superiority in number and quality of shots, the hosts are the favorites, although Arda can be dangerous after scoring 11 goals in their last 5 matches. Forecast: CSKA win, with an approximate probability split of 50% home, 30% draw and 20% away.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
CSKA creates an average of 1.79 xG per game, while Arda concedes 1.71 xG per game, suggesting the hosts will produce quality chances; on the other hand Arda generates 0.75 xG versus 0.41 xG conceded by CSKA, which limits the visitors' opportunities. In the last 5 matches Arda scored 11 goals (2.2 per game) and had BTTS in 60% of fixtures, with an average of 5 shots and a 20% conversion rate, while CSKA scored 5 goals (1.0 per game) and had BTTS in 40%, averaging 11 shots and a 9% conversion rate. Seasonal stats are contrasting: CSKA has a season clean sheet percentage of 100% and season BTTS of 0%, whereas Arda has season BTTS of 100% and a season clean sheet percentage of 0%. Additionally the league records 67% of matches with BTTS, and CSKA in the last 5 games conceded an average of 0.6 goals (3 goals total), so despite the hosts' seasonal defensive stat they are not completely impermeable. Considering Arda's finishing efficiency, its BTTS consistency and the high league BTTS rate, I predict BTTS - Yes with a probability of 65% versus 35% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG I expect about 1.75 goals for CSKA (xG_for_home 1.79 vs xG_against_away 1.71) and about 0.58 for Arda (xG_for_away 0.75 vs xG_against_home 0.41), totaling ≈2.33 goals. The Poisson distribution for λ=2.33 yields ~68% chance of at least 2 goals, ~41% for at least 3 and ~21% for 4 or more, hence Over/Under 1.5 ≈68/32, 2.5 ≈41/59, 3.5 ≈21/79. Shot statistics show higher activity from CSKA (11 shots and 4 on target on average) vs Arda (5 and 2), and despite Arda’s higher conversion rate 20% versus CSKA’s 9%, Arda’s low xG (0.75) limits the probability of multiple goals. In the last 5 matches Arda scored 11 goals (avg 2.2), CSKA 5 (1.0), and recent xG 1.36+1.24=2.60 also indicates a result around 2–3 goals, therefore the strongest signal is under 3.5 (79%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Statistical analysis indicates a clear home advantage over the full match: CSKA’s xG is 1.79 versus Arda’s 0.75, and the home side averages 11 shots (4 on target) compared to the visitors’ 5 shots (2 on target). The picture at half-time, however, is different — half-time expected goals are 0.0 for CSKA and 1.0 for Arda, and in the last five matches Arda led at the break in 40% of games while the home team did so in only 20%. CSKA are strong after the break: they average 1.0 goals in the second half and have conceded 0.0 goals at home this season, which supports a turnaround. Additionally, the hosts register 3.0 points per home match versus the visitors’ 1.0 points per match this season, so the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| CSKA 1948 Sofia | Arda | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 52% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
CSKA 1948 Sofia is 100% better for: goals scored per match.
2 goals / match - CSKA 1948 Sofia · 1 goals / match - Arda
Arda is 200% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.5 goals / match - CSKA 1948 Sofia · 0.5 goals / match - Arda
CSKA 1948 Sofia scores in 100% of matches (2 of 2 matches), while Arda keeps a clean sheet in 50% (1 of 2 matches).
Arda scores in 100% of matches (2 of 2 matches), while CSKA 1948 Sofia keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 2 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — CSKA 1948 Sofia
Over / Under — Arda
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Arda is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.5 pts / match - CSKA 1948 Sofia · 2 pts / match - Arda
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
CSKA 1948 Sofia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Arda - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Average goals in match | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 50% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 50% | 50% |
| No goal | 50% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| Average goals in match | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 50% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 50% |
| No goal | 50% | 50% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (2 goli). Concedes most in 0-15 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (1 goli). Concedes most in 46-60 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
CSKA 1948 Sofia
Arda
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (First League).
Teams vs league
| CSKA 1948 Sofia | Liga | Arda | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.50 | 2.40 | ▼ 1.50 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 100% | 67% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 100% | 47% | ▼ 0% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 0% | 20% | ▲ 50% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 100% | 67% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 80% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): CSKA 1948 Sofia 1 - 0 - 1 Arda. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Arda?
The First League match finished CSKA 1948 Sofia 2:1 Arda. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA 1948 Sofia and Arda?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches CSKA 1948 Sofia won 1, Arda won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Arda?
CSKA 1948 Sofia score 2.00 goals per game on average and Arda 1.00. The First League average is 2.40 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 100% of CSKA 1948 Sofia's matches and 50% of Arda's.
What form are CSKA 1948 Sofia and Arda in?
Over the last 5 games CSKA 1948 Sofia have a 1-1-0 record (2.00 points per game) and Arda 1-1-0 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Arda?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Arda: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.