CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Botev Vratsa: match statistics

I back the away win (2): Botev Vratsa shows clearly better form in the last 5 matches — 3 wins and 2 draws with 0 defeats, while CSKA 1948 Sofia has 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss. In attack the visitors scored 8 goals in those 5 games versus 4 goals for the hosts, and defensively Botev conceded 3 compared to CSKA’s 4, giving a goal difference of +5 for the visitors and 0 for the hosts over this period. Also in points gained Botev averages 2.2 points per game in the last 5 rounds, while CSKA averages 1.2 points per game, which demonstrates the visitors’ greater efficiency. In the table Botev sits higher (7th) than CSKA (11th), and the lack of complete home stats for CSKA (many fields at 0) limits assessment of their home advantage. Based on the superiority in goal balance, average points and the unbeaten run in the last 5 matches, I assign a substantially higher probability to a Botev Vratsa victory.

I predict BTTS — 'Yes' is more likely. League-wide 71% of matches finish with both teams scoring, and CSKA's home-season CS is 100% (Botev has a seasonal 0%, suggesting a small sample). In the last 5 matches CSKA had BTTS in 40% of games and Botev in 60%, which together favors a both-teams-to-score scenario. Goal and xG analysis supports this: over the last 5 matches CSKA averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded with xG 1.35 for and 1.45 against, while Botev averaged 1.6 scored and 0.6 conceded with xG 1.17 for and 1.24 against. Considering the league BTTS rate of 71%, CSKA's seasonal 100% at home and the visitors' form (8 goals scored in their last 5 versus 4 for the hosts), I rate 'Yes' at 65% and 'No' at 35%.

xG analysis shows the home side have xG_for (last 5) 1.35 while the visitors have 1.17; xG_against is 1.45 for CSKA 1948 and 1.24 for Botev Vratsa. Averaging one team’s attack with the other’s defense yields expected goals of 1.30 for the hosts and 1.31 for the guests, totaling 2.61 goals. A Poisson model with lambda=2.61 prices the probability of Over 1.5 at ~73%, Over 2.5 at ~48% and Over 3.5 at ~27%. Additionally, in the last 5 matches the goal averages are 0.8 (home) and 1.6 (away), total 2.4 goals, so the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is Over 1.5 (73% vs 27% for Under 1.5).

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome: CSKA had a draw at the break in 100% of their matches this season, and in the last 5 meetings the half-time draw rate was 60% for both CSKA (3 of 5) and Botev (3 of 5). After the break Botev have the edge — the visitors won 60% (3 of 5) of their last 5 matches and average 1.6 goals, while CSKA have won only 20% (1 of 5) and average 0.8 goals. Goals primarily occur in the second half: CSKA’s matches average 2.0 goals in the second half (CSKA scores 1.0 and concedes 1.0), and the proportion of home games with at least one second-half goal is 100%; for the visitors the proportion of matches with a second-half goal in the last 5 is also 100%. Seasonal xG shows 0.83 for CSKA versus 0.00 for Botev, but the visitors’ season data are incomplete, so I place greater weight on form (3 wins for the visitors vs 1 win for the hosts in the last 5). On this basis I select HT/FT X/2 as the strongest signal (half-time draw and away win), assigning probabilities accordingly: X/2 36%, X/X 23% and X/1 7%.