CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Ludogorets: match statistics

Ludogorets are the favorites based on season-long metrics: they sit 2nd and have scored 60 goals versus CSKA 1948’s 53, with an away goals average of 1.76 for the visitors compared to 1.56 home for the hosts. Defensively the visitors perform better — conceding 0.71 goals on average away, while CSKA concedes 1.13 at home, and average xG against is 1.05 vs 1.24. In attack Ludogorets have higher xG (1.83 vs 1.53) and more shots on target per match (5.06 vs 4.5), indicating better quality of chances, and the away goal difference is +18 for Ludogorets versus +7 for the hosts. However, in the short term CSKA looks more solid — they have won 2 of their last 5 matches, scored 7 goals and average 1.4 points per match, while Ludogorets have won 1 of their last 5, scored 3 goals and average 1.0 point per match. Considering the seasonal defensive edge and superior chance quality (xG) on the visitors’ side, I back a Ludogorets win.

I recommend 'No' (both teams not to score) as the more likely outcome with an estimated probability of 62%. The primary signal is Ludogorets' away form: only 29% of their away matches finish BTTS, and they keep a clean sheet in 59% of away games. CSKA at home have attacking potential (xG 2.22, averaging 1.76 goals scored per match and 7 goals in the last 5 fixtures), but their clean sheet rate is still 47%. Additionally both teams concede only 0.71 goals on average this season, and the league features a high clean sheet rate of 69% and an average goals figure of 2.3, which together reduce BTTS likelihood. Considering the seasonal BTTS disparity 53% (CSKA) versus 29% (Ludogorets) and Ludogorets' strong defensive metrics, I assign 38% probability to 'Yes' and 62% to 'No'.

The xG model projects a total expected goals of 3.02 (home xG 1.64 vs away xG 1.38), which is a strong signal for at least 2 goals. CSKA 1948 averages 1.76 goals per match and produces 2.22 xG, while Ludogorets averages 1.76 goals and 1.83 xG; the hosts register 18.0 shots and 6.24 on target versus the visitors’ 14.12/5.06, which supports value on the Over. Seasonally 82% of CSKA’s matches and 59% of Ludogorets’s matches finish over 1.5 goals, and with a combined xG=3.02 I assess the probability of Over 1.5 at about 88%. Over 2.5 also makes sense (model ~63%) given the 3.02 expected goals and conversion rates of 10%/13%, whereas Over 3.5 looks unlikely (seasonal 12% and 24%, model ~28%). The strongest signal is therefore a play on Over 1.5.

Seasonally both teams average 1.76 goals per match, but the last five meetings clearly favor the home side: CSKA led at the break in 60% of cases (3 of 5) and averaged 1.2 goals at half-time versus 0.2 for Ludogorets. In terms of chance quality CSKA generates more — the home xG is 2.22 against the visitors’ 1.83 — with the hosts averaging 6.24 shots on target and 18 attempts per match versus 5.06 and 14.12 for the guests, translating into greater threat. In the second half the home side scores on average 1.18 goals and concedes only 0.24, and in 82% of their matches the second half yields at least one goal, so they tend to maintain or increase a lead at the break. On this basis the most likely scenario is CSKA leading at half-time and the hosts winning at full-time (1/1), therefore this outcome receives the highest probability; a draw or a turnaround by Ludogorets is less likely given the xG gap and recent first-half statistics.