CSKA Sofia vs Levski Sofia: match statistics

CSKA Sofia have a strong home defense and quality in chance creation — the hosts concede on average 0.6 goals per home match and have average xG 2.18, while Levski away concede 0.87 on average and have xG 1.90. In the last 5 matches CSKA recorded 4 wins and 1 draw, scoring 9 and conceding 2, whereas Levski have 3 wins and 2 draws with a 7-4 record. Levski, as leaders, have 64 goals this season versus CSKA’s 43 and a higher shot conversion away (12% vs 10%), giving the visitors an efficiency edge. However, the hosts attempt more shots (17.73 vs 14.73) and have more shots on target (5.8 vs 5.2), plus 67% home wins versus Levski’s 60% away wins and 40% clean sheets at home vs 27% for the visitors, which argues for a slight CSKA advantage. Based on these figures I predict a home win (prediction '1') with probability 50%, draw 30% and Levski win 20%.

CSKA Sofia at home shows a very strong defense: kept a clean sheet in 53% of matches and concedes on average 0.6 goals season-to-date (0.4 in the last 5), while the season BTTS for the hosts is only 40%. Levski Sofia away demonstrates a higher tendency for both teams to score — season BTTS 53% and 60% in the last 5 — and averages 1.73 goals scored this season (1.4 in the last 5). xG comparison suggests theoretical expected goals in this match of about 1.58 for CSKA (mean of 2.18 and 0.97) and 1.40 for Levski (mean of 1.9 and 0.9), so both teams create chances but the home defensive advantage is significant. CSKA posts 15% shot conversion with an average of 7.13 shots on target, while Levski has 12% with 5.2 shots on target, which favors the hosts in keeping a clean sheet. Considering CSKA’s 53% clean sheets and 40% BTTS versus Levski’s 53–60% BTTS and the difference in seasonal goals conceded (0.6 vs 0.87), I favor the BTTS - No scenario: 60% vs 40%.

CSKA averages 2.53 goals per match, Levski 1.73, with home xG 2.18 and away xG 1.90, and opponents' xG respectively 0.90 and 0.97. The attack/defense combination (average of home attacking xG and away defending xG and vice versa) yields an expected 1.58 goals for CSKA and 1.40 for Levski, totaling 2.98 goals. Seasonally, over 1.5 goals occurs in 73% of CSKA’s matches and 67% of Levski’s, while over 2.5 occurs in 67% and 53% — confirming both teams’ tendency toward matches with at least 2–3 goals. A Poisson model with lambda=2.98 gives ~80% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), ~57% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and ~35% for 4+ goals (Over 3.5), so the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Additionally, CSKA averages 7.13 shots on target versus Levski’s 5.2 and has a higher conversion rate 15% vs 12%, increasing the likelihood of converting created chances.

CSKA Sofia holds a clear statistical advantage: at home they won 87% of matches, scoring an average of 2.53 goals per game versus 1.73 for Levski. At half-time the hosts drew in 53% of matches and held the lead in 47%, with average goals before the break of 0.8 and only 0.07 conceded, suggesting frequent 0-0 or 1-goal scorelines at the break. In the second half CSKA significantly accelerate — they score on average 1.73 goals after the break and win the second half in 73% of cases, with most goals coming in minutes 46–90 (9, 8, 9 goals in the 46–60, 61–75, 76–90 intervals). Additionally, the hosts’ xG is 2.18 versus the visitors’ 1.90, and the share of matches in which both teams scored before half-time is very low (7%), which confirms that the game is often level at the break and then decided by CSKA. Therefore I select the strongest signal as a half-time draw with a CSKA victory at full-time (X/1).