CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets: match statistics

I predict a home win (1): CSKA Sofia is in better form over the last 5 matches – 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss with an average of 1.6 points per game, while Ludogorets has 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses with just 0.4 points per game. Season-long figures show Ludogorets with superior goal output and position (58 goals scored and 2nd place vs 44 goals and 4th for CSKA), but the visitors have scored only 2 goals in their last 5 matches. CSKA at home generate higher xG (2.11) and more shots (17.06), translating to 1.69 goals per game, while Ludogorets away have 1.89 xG, 14.47 shots and 1.93 goals per game; the visitors are however more efficient (conversion 13% vs 10%). Defensively both teams are similar (CSKA concede 0.75 goals at home, Ludogorets 0.73 away) and both have conceded 5 goals in the last 5 matches, although the visitors have 60% clean sheets on the road versus 38% for the hosts, so I expect a tight contest decided by margins.

CSKA scores on average 1.81 goals per match with xG 2.25 and registers 6.38 shots on target, while Ludogorets averages 1.93 goals per match with xG 1.89 and 5.53 shots on target. Both teams defend effectively: CSKA concedes 0.69 goals per match and Ludogorets 0.73, with clean sheet percentages of 50% and 60% respectively. Seasonal BTTS rates are 50% for the home side and only 33% for the visitors (league average 44%), which favors No Goal scenarios. In the last 5 matches Ludogorets scored 0.4 goals on average and had 40% BTTS, while CSKA scored 1.0 and had 60% BTTS, so hosts score more often but visitors have recently been poor offensively. Considering the visitors' high clean sheet rate (60%) and Ludogorets' low seasonal BTTS (33%) despite CSKA's superior xG, the stronger signal is BTTS - No: 65% No vs 35% Yes.

xG and shot metrics indicate significant goal potential: CSKA has xG_for 2.25 and averages 18.19 shots (6.38 on target), while Ludogorets has xG_for 1.89 and averages 14.47 shots (5.53 on target). Averaging the home xG with the opponent’s xG yields expected goals ≈1.64 for CSKA and ≈1.42 for Ludogorets, totaling ≈3.06 goals. Seasonally CSKA records 81% of matches with over 1.5 goals and Ludogorets 67%; a Poisson distribution with λ=3.06 gives probability of over 1.5 ≈81%, over 2.5 ≈59% and over 3.5 ≈37%. Although clean sheet rates are 50% for CSKA and 60% for Ludogorets, the low average goals conceded (0.69 and 0.73) are offset by high xG and shot volumes, maintaining a clear chance of at least two goals. Based on this, I recommend betting on Over 1.5 as the strongest signal, with an expected total of 3.06 goals.

At Half-Time I expect a draw: both teams have high first-half clean sheet rates (CSKA 63% and Ludogorets 73%) and low average goals by the break (0.63 for the home side vs 0.67 for the visitors), which favors 0-0/1-1 scorelines. After 90 minutes CSKA is the favorite due to superior chance creation – the home side’s average xG is 2.25 versus the visitors’ 1.89, with 18.19 shots per match (6.38 on target) compared to 14.47 (5.53) – this yields an advantage in scoring opportunities. Additionally, the hosts average 2.0 points per home match versus 1.87 points on average for the visitors, and in the last five matches CSKA has a 40% win rate while Ludogorets has 0% wins and 60% losses, indicating poorer form for the away team. Taking this into account, the most likely scenario is a draw at the break and a CSKA win after the match (X/1) – I assign it a 30% probability; alternatives are draw/draw (17%) or leading and winning CSKA from the start (1/1 12%). Less likely are scenarios with an away win after the match (25% combined for 1/2, X/2 and 2/2), despite Ludogorets having led at half-time in 40% of their games.