CSM Reşiţa vs Stefanesti: match statistics

CSM Reşiţa have clear home advantage, having won 100% of their matches so far, scoring an average of 2.0 goals and creating chances worth 2.47 xG per game. The hosts average 19 shots, including 10 on target, with 54% possession, which should allow them to maintain sustained pressure on the opposition defense. Stefanesti have lost every away match, are yet to score, and concede an average of 3.0 goals, with opposition xG at 1.50. However, the visitors are in strong overall form, with 4 wins in their last 5 matches and an 11:4 goal difference, so their response cannot be completely ruled out. Nevertheless, the contrast between Reşiţa’s home effectiveness and Stefanesti’s lack of attacking output away from home clearly points towards a home win.

The strongest signal for BTTS - No comes from the direct indicators relevant to this match: CSM Reşiţa have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their home games, while Stefanesti have failed to score in 100% of their away matches. Both teams also have 0% of matches with goals scored by both sides in this competition, with the hosts averaging 1.0 goal scored and the visitors conceding 3.0 goals per away game. Recent form partially increases the away side’s attacking prospects, as they have averaged 2.2 goals scored across their last five matches; however, BTTS occurred in only 20% of those games, compared with 40% for Reşiţa. xG points to the possibility of goals for the hosts, who create an average of 1.66 xG, but with Stefanesti at 1.16 xG and Reşiţa recording a solid recent defensive xG of 1.11, it is more likely that at least one team will fail to score.

The model expects 2.85 goals, with a forecast of 1.62 for CSM Reşiţa and 1.23 for Stefanesti, clearly supporting Over 1.5 goals. In their last five matches, Stefanesti averaged 2.2 goals scored, while CSM Reşiţa conceded 1.6 goals per game over the same period. The hosts created chances worth an average of 1.87 xG, whereas the visitors’ defense allowed opponents 1.37 xG, meaning Reşiţa should have a realistic chance of finding the net. Across the teams’ last five matches, the 2.5-goal line was exceeded in 40% of the hosts’ games and 60% of the visitors’ games, providing moderate, but not particularly strong, support for the higher line. Over 1.5 goals remains the strongest pick, as even in a cautious scenario, the attacking potential of both sides is clearly greater than the risk of a match finishing with no more than one goal.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a CSM Reşiţa win at the final whistle, as the hosts drew the first half in their available home match and won the second half, ultimately securing a 1–0 victory. In their away match, Stefanesti were trailing 0–1 after 45 minutes and conceded a further two goals after the break without scoring. The hosts average 7 shots on target compared with 3 for the visitors, while their xG stands at 1.66 against the opponents’ 1.16, supporting Reşiţa’s advantage over the full match. On the other hand, Stefanesti’s last five matches have produced an 80% win rate and an average of 2.2 goals scored, so away-win scenarios cannot be completely disregarded. Despite the visitors’ stronger recent run, their 0–3 away defeat and the hosts’ 100% success rate in the second half point primarily towards the X/1 outcome.