Cuiabá vs Londrina: match statistics

Cuiabá are favorites in this matchup based on superiority in key metrics. At home they average 14 shots with 5.71 on target and an xG of 1.56, while Londrina on the road average 11 shots, 3.29 on target and an xG of 1.18. Defensively the hosts are better — Cuiabá concede only 0.57 goals per home match and have 57% clean sheets, whereas Londrina concede 1.71 goals away and have recorded 0% clean sheets. Cuiabá’s issue is finishing: despite an xG of 1.56 they score only 0.71 goals at home with a conversion rate of 5% and a 43% share of matches without a goal, while Londrina have a higher conversion of 10% and average 1.14 goals away. Considering the higher xG for the hosts, superior defense and form (Cuiabá averaging 1.8 points in the last 5 matches versus Londrina’s 1.2), I predict a home win.

I assess BTTS probability at 35% for "Yes" and 65% for "No", therefore I pick "No". The strongest signal is that Londrina failed to score in 57% of season matches and has 0% clean sheets, while conceding 22 goals this season, which greatly reduces their scoring likelihood. Cuiabá scores in 71% of matches (100%−29% matches without a goal) and has a season BTTS rate of 57%, but a simple season estimate of 71%×43% yields only about a 31% probability that both teams score simultaneously. In the last 5 matches BTTS occurred in only 20% of games for both teams, and the last-5 balances are: Cuiabá 5 scored and 3 conceded (avg 0.6 conceded), Londrina 5 scored and 7 conceded (avg 1.4 conceded), which confirms the low BTTS trend. Although the home side creates more chances (xG 1.39 vs 1.18, 13.14 shots vs 11.0 and 3.71 shots on target vs 3.29), Londrina’s dominant share of goal-less matches and the low BTTS frequency in form favor the "No" scenario (clean sheet expected/No Goal).

I estimate Cuiabá will generate 1.55 xG and Londrina 1.26 xG, totaling 2.81 expected goals, clearly above the league average of 2.31. Season-long indicators show both teams have 71% of matches over 1.5 goals (Cuiabá 71%, Londrina 71%), while Over 2.5 occurs in 57% of home matches and 71% of away matches, suggesting a moderately high chance of at least 2–3 goals. Cuiabá averages 13.14 shots with 3.71 on target, Londrina 11.0 and 3.29; with a 10% conversion rate these figures support the 1.55 and 1.26 xG projections. However, the last 5 matches show a decline in games over 2.5 goals (last 5: 20% for the home side, 40% for the away side) and both defenses concede on average 1.43 (Cuiabá) and 1.71 (Londrina) goals, which limits the likelihood of a very high scoreline over 3.5. Based on these data I select Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (probability Over 1.5 ~84%), rate Over 2.5 as moderately likely (~62%), and Over 3.5 as unlikely (~30%).

Half-time statistics show a clear draw trend: the home side were level at the break in 71% of the season’s matches and in 60% of their last 5 games; average first-half goals are 0.43 for the hosts versus 0.14 for the visitors. After the break the hosts’ advantage increases — their season xG is 1.39 compared to 1.18 for the visitors, their average points per game are 1.14 versus 0.86 for Londrina, and the visitors concede on average 1.71 goals per match. Data on second-half goals confirm that HT draws are often resolved: 86% of the hosts’ matches see at least one goal after the break, while for the visitors this share is 71%. Combined with the hosts’ better form in the last 5 matches (60% wins vs. 40% for the visitors), the safest scenario is a draw at half-time and a Cuiabá win after 90 minutes, so I assign the highest probability to the X/1 outcome (33%), with 1/1 (22%) and X/X (15%) as alternatives.