Cuiabá vs Novorizontino: match statistics

I back the draw: the hosts have as many as 75% draws at home and 0% home wins, substantially increasing the likelihood of a points split. Cuiabá generates on average 1.5 xG at home and 13.75 shots per match with 53% possession, but scores only 0.5 goals per match — a -1.0 difference versus xG, indicating clear inefficiency. Novorizontino arrives with better efficiency: 11 goals this season, averaging 1.5 goals away and a conversion rate of around 14%, while the hosts have 4 goals and a 4% conversion. Both teams concede about 1 goal per match (Cuiabá 1.0 at home, Novorizontino 1.0 away) and have 50% of games without scoring, so I expect a low, controlled game (most likely 0-0 or 1-1), hence a 55% chance of a draw, 35% for an away win and 10% for a home win.

I project BTTS is more likely — 65% for 'Yes' and 35% for 'No'. Cuiabá generates on average xG 1.9 with 18 shots and 5.5 shots on target per match, while Novorizontino concedes xG 1.21, which favors a home goal. Novorizontino averages xG 1.2, a seasonal goals average of 1.5 and has scored 9 goals in the last 5 matches (1.8 per game), so the visitors can find the net. On the other hand the picture is mixed: Cuiabá at home records 75% BTTS, whereas Novorizontino away has 50% clean sheets and only 25% BTTS, which reduces confidence in the tip. Considering the hosts' creative edge (xG 1.9, 18 shots) and the visitors' recent finishing form (9 goals in 5 matches), the Goal/Goal scenario appears stronger.

Based on xG I project approximately 1.56 goals for Cuiabá (attacking xG 1.90 vs opponents’ xG conceded 1.21) and 1.07 for Novorizontino (attacking xG 1.20 vs hosts’ xG conceded 0.94), giving a total of 2.63 expected goals. The 2.63 total is above the league average of 2.18 and exceeds the 2.5 threshold, so I assign a 60% probability to Over 2.5 (40% Under 2.5). Seasonally Cuiabá’s matches finish above 1.5 goals in 75% of cases, Novorizontino in 50%; the hosts average 18 shots and 5.5 on target with 7% conversion, while the visitors have 11 shots and 4 on target with 14% conversion — this supports a high 88% probability for Over 1.5. I rate Over 3.5 at about 25% (Under 75%), since seasonal Over 3.5 is only 25% for both teams and the expected 2.63 is well below 3.5. The strongest betting signal is Over 1.5, confirmed by xG 1.56/1.07 and seasonal rates 75%/50%.

At HT the most likely outcome is a draw: the home team have been level at the break in 4 of 4 matches (drawingAtHT_home = 4.0, drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 100.0), and the visitors in 3 of 4 (drawingAtHT_away = 3.0, drawingAtHTPercentage_away = 75.0); the home side have never led at the break (leadingAtHTPercentage_home = 0.0), so HT draw predominates. After the break I expect greater activity from Cuiabá – their xG is 1.9 versus Novorizontino’s 1.2 (difference +0.7), average shots 18.0 vs 11.0 and shots on target 5.5 vs 4.0 (difference +7 shots, +1.5 SOT). The home team also have higher average points 1.75 vs 1.25 and a league home attack advantage (league_homeAttackAdvantagePercentage = 22.0), and the second half often produces goals (over05_2hg_percentage_home = 100.0, over05_2hg_percentage_away = 75.0), which favors a turnaround after the break. Despite the visitors’ better form over the last 5 (last5_winPercentage_overall_away = 60.0 vs home = 20.0), Novorizontino’s low first-half efficiency (scoredAVGHT_away = 0.0) makes the scenario of a draw at half-time and a home win (X/1) the strongest.