Cuiabá vs Operário PR: match statistics

Cuiabá are in very poor recent form: they have failed to win any of their last 5 matches, scoring 4 goals and conceding 7, which limits their chances despite home advantage. At home, however, the hosts defend solidly, conceding an average of just 0.73 goals per match, with 45% of games ending in a clean sheet and 55% in draws. Operário PR sit 4th and have collected 7 points from their last 5 league fixtures, but they lose as many as 40% of their away matches and concede an average of 1.40 goals. The visitors are more efficient, scoring 1.30 goals per away game and converting 12% of their shots, yet Cuiabá create more high-quality chances at home: their average xG stands at 1.71 compared with Operário’s 1.16. The combination of the hosts’ strong defensive record, their high tendency to draw and the visitors’ inconsistent away form points most strongly towards a share of the points.

The BTTS indicators support goals for both sides: Cuiabá records 55% and Operário PR 60%, compared with the league average of 48%. Operário PR had BTTS in 100% of their last five matches, scoring an average of 1.8 goals but also conceding 2.2, which clearly increases the hosts’ chances of finding the net. Cuiabá produces an average of 1.72 xG at home and registers 5.27 shots on target per match, while the visitors’ defense allows an average of 1.73 xG and 1.40 goals. The risk to the pick is the hosts’ weaker recent scoring form—only 0.8 goals per match across their last five games—and Cuiabá’s 45% clean-sheet rate this season. However, the attacking form and vulnerable Operário PR defense ultimately favor BTTS - Yes.

Cuiabá averages 1.72 xG and 17.0 shots per game at home, while Operário PR allows 1.73 xG away from home and concedes an average of 1.40 goals. The visitors score an average of 1.30 goals, while Cuiabá’s defense allows opponents 1.37 xG, making a goal from the visitors a realistic scenario as well. At least 2 goals were scored in 64% of Cuiabá’s matches and in as many as 80% of Operário PR’s games, which clearly supports Over 1.5. The visitors’ last five matches were particularly open: they scored 9 goals and conceded 11, with Over 2.5 and Both Teams to Score landing in 100% of those games. However, the Over 1.5 line remains the safest option, as despite the high attacking potential, 73% of the hosts’ matches and 80% of the visitors’ games ended with a maximum of three goals.

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome, as Cuiabá were level after 45 minutes in 55% of their home matches, while Operário recorded the same result in 50% of their away fixtures; over their last five appearances, both teams reached a 60% rate in this regard. The hosts are also well organized early in matches, conceding an average of just 0.45 goals before the break and keeping a clean sheet at half-time in 64% of games. After the interval, the quality advantage remains with Cuiabá: their average xG stands at 1.72 compared with Operário’s 1.16, while the hosts average 17 shots and 5.27 shots on target per match, against 10.7 and 3.7 respectively for their opponents. Operário have been slightly more efficient in front of goal recently, scoring 1.8 goals across their last five matches, but they have also conceded as many as 2.2 goals, which favors a turnaround in a balanced match in the hosts’ favor during the second half. The X/1 scenario is further supported by Cuiabá’s full-season advantage in points gained at home: 1.91 per match compared with Operário’s 1.40 away.