Cumbayá vs 22 de Julio: match statistics

Cumbayá has a clear advantage in chance conversion: the home side have scored 14 goals this season, averaging 1.14 goals per home match, while 22 de Julio have only 8 goals this season and average 0.5 goals away. The difference in efficiency is significant — Cumbayá converts around 17% of shots with averages of 7 shots and 2 on target per match, whereas the visitors convert only about 6% from 8.17 shots and 2 on target, which results in 67% of away matches without a goal for 22 de Julio versus 14% for the home side. Defensively the visitors perform worse: 22 de Julio concede 2.17 goals on average away with xG against 1.86, while Cumbayá concede 1.29 at home with xG against 0.84, increasing the likelihood of goals for the hosts. In the last 5 matches Cumbayá have a record of 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss with 1.2 points per game, and 22 de Julio have 1 win and 4 losses with 0.6 points per game; additionally the visitors have an 83% away loss rate this season versus 14% home loss rate. Considering higher home possession (53% vs 40%), better finishing and greater defensive vulnerability of the visitors, the most likely outcome is a Cumbayá win.

Both teams show a low propensity for BTTS: Cumbayá 13%, 22 de Julio 33%, versus a league average of 42%. Cumbayá concedes only 0.5 goals at home and records 50% clean sheets, while producing xG 1.21, averaging 12 shots and 5.5 on target — indicating hosts frequently create and convert chances. 22 de Julio concedes 2.17 goals on average with xG against 1.86, but scores only 0.5 goals seasonally and has just 0.4 goals and a mere 0.04 xG in the last 5 matches, with 2.0 shots on target and a 6% conversion rate, signaling a very limited scoring threat. In practice, the combination of Cumbayá’s 50% clean sheets and 22 de Julio’s very low creativity (0.04 xG in last 5) makes it more likely that only the hosts will score. Therefore I assign a 70% probability to the 'No' (both teams not to score) scenario and 30% to 'Yes', recommending the 'No' (No Goal) bet as the strongest signal.

The model combines xG and observed form and yields a total of ~2.10 expected goals: Cumbayá ~1.40 (xG 1.21; opponent concedes 1.86 xG and averages 2.17 goals away) and 22 de Julio ~0.70 (xG 0.88; visitors in last 5 matches have xG_for 0.04 and scored only 2 goals in 5 fixtures). Despite 22 de Julio’s defensive weakness (2.17 conceded away), Cumbayá actually scores only 0.63 goals per game this season and has a low conversion rate of 8% from an average of 12 shots, so part of the potential does not translate into goals. The last 5 matches confirm a moderate tempo: Cumbayá 3 scored/3 conceded (0.6 g/match), 22 de Julio 2 scored/6 conceded (0.4 scored and 1.2 conceded per match). With an expected total λ≈2.10 the model estimates ~62% for Over 1.5, ~35% for Over 2.5 and ~16% for Over 3.5, so the strongest signal is Under 2.5 (65%) given the hosts’ low conversion and the visitors’ weak attack.

Half-time data indicate a draw as the most common state: Cumbayá led at the break in 2 of 6 matches (33%), while the half-time score was level in 4 of 6 (67%), and 22 de Julio never led at the break (0%). In the second half the home advantage is pronounced: Cumbayá’s xG is 1.21 versus 0.88 for 22 de Julio, the home side averages 5.5 shots on target and 12.0 shots per match compared to 2.0 and 8.17 for the visitors, with conversion rates of 8% vs. 6%. The away team concedes on average 2.17 goals per match and has a 0% away-win rate this season, while the hosts concede 0.5 goals on average, keep 50% clean sheets across the season and 100% clean sheets at half-time, which increases the likelihood of either overturning the score or scoring after the break. Based on this, the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win after 90 minutes (X/1) — I assign it a 34% probability, compared to 23% for 1/1 and 26% for a final draw (X/X), while the aggregate chance of an away win is roughly 9%.