Dalian Huayi vs Yanbian Longding: match statistics

I expect a draw. Dalian Huayi create more chances at home (avg. 11 shots and xG 1.31 per game) than Yanbian (6.67 shots and xG 0.94), but that advantage does not translate into wins — hosts have 0% wins and 100% draws at home. Visitors are more efficient and compact: Yanbian have a higher shot conversion rate (15% vs 9%), concede only 0.33 goals on average away and record 67% clean sheets, while Dalian concede 1.00 at home and have no clean sheets. In the last 5 matches Yanbian scored 10 goals and average 2.0 points, Dalian 9 goals and 1.6 points, indicating better form for the visitors. Additionally, hosts always score at home (0% matches without a goal), while Yanbian failed to score in 67% of away games, which may limit total goals. Therefore I forecast an even, low-scoring game with the highest probability of a draw, though there is a realistic chance of a narrow away win due to Yanbian’s defense and superior conversion.

Signals are mixed: Dalian Huayi have 80% BTTS in their last 5 matches, while Yanbian Longding have only 20% BTTS in their last 5, so the home side often contributes to Goal/Goal outcomes, whereas the visitors usually avoid it. The visitors boast a strong defense — season clean sheet rate 67% and on average 0.33 goals conceded per match for the season, and in the last 5 matches Yanbian concede on average 0.4 goals (2 conceded in 5), which significantly reduces the likelihood of BTTS. On the other hand Dalian in the last 5 matches score on average 1.8 goals and have xG 1.53, while Yanbian have xG against 1.06; this suggests the hosts create more chances (1.53 xG vs 1.06 xG allowed), so Dalian may score, but it is not guaranteed. Considering Yanbian's high clean sheet rate (67%), the visitors' low average goals conceded (0.33–0.4), and the league BTTS rate of 43% with a league CS of 61%, I assess the No Goal scenario as more likely: BTTS 'no' 65%, 'yes' 35%.

Based on the last 5 matches, Dalian averages 1.8 goals (xG 1.53) and Yanbian averages 2.0 goals (xG 1.14) — a combined 3.8 actual goals and 2.67 xG (1.53+1.14). Averaging attack and defense yields expected xG of 1.30 for the home side (1.53 attack vs 1.06 opposition defense) and 1.19 for the away side (1.14 attack vs 1.24 opposition defense), total 2.49. A Poisson model with λ=2.49 gives probabilities: Over 1.5 around 71%, Over 2.5 around 45% and Over 3.5 around 24%. Additionally, Dalian registered Over 2.5 in 80% of their last 5 matches, while Yanbian has kept 67% clean sheets this season and conceded on average 0.4 goals in the last 5, which weakens the signal for higher overs. As a result the strongest and most predictable pick is Over 1.5 (line 1.5), supported by combined xG 2.49 and the home side’s clear tendency toward goal-heavy matches.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and an away win (X/2). Yanbian Longding averages 1.00 goals scored and concedes only 0.33 goals per match this season, and have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their fixtures, increasing the likelihood of a win without conceding. At half-time the visitors were level in 67% of matches and led in 33%, while the hosts show 0.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded in the seasonal data, which creates greater uncertainty on Dalian’s side. Yanbian have an xG of 0.94 and average 3.67 shots on target per game, and despite an opponent xG of 1.07 they actually concede only 0.33 goals, suggesting an efficient defense and an ability to secure the result in the second half. Considering the visitors’ 67% rate of draws at the break and their high clean sheet percentage, X/2 is the strongest signal from the available data.