Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye: match statistics

I back the home win (1). Dalian Zhixing have a 100% win rate and 100% clean sheets at home, averaging 2.0 goals scored per match and conceding 0.0, with a home goal difference of +4 and 10 goals scored this season (10 in the last 5). Henan away average is 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, and in 50% of away matches they fail to score, with 0% clean sheets, which significantly limits their real threat. In terms of chance quality the visitors generate more shots (14 vs 11), more shots on target (4 vs 3.5) and higher away xG (1.58 vs 1.19), but they have a much lower conversion rate (7% vs the hosts’ 18%). Form also favors Dalian: in the last 5 matches they have 3 wins and 2 losses (1.8 points per game) versus Henan’s 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses (1.4 points per game), therefore I assign a 66% probability to the home win, 20% to a draw and 14% to the away win.

The 'both teams to score' outcome appears more likely: Dalian Zhixing has a season BTTS rate of 67% versus Henan Jianye’s 50%, and BTTS occurs in 60% of league matches. In the last 5 meetings both sides show a 60% BTTS rate, confirming the repeatability of this pattern. Neither team has a clean sheet this season (0%), and their xG are 1.59 (home) and 1.58 (away) with an average of 14 shots and 4 on target each, indicating realistic scoring opportunities for both sides. Dalian averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over the last 5 matches, while Henan averages 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded in the last 5, so both teams are simultaneously creating and conceding goals. Considering the hosts’ 67% BTTS, the league’s 60% and the absence of clean sheets, I assess the BTTS probability at 70% and recommend a 'BTTS - Yes' bet.

Both teams have almost identical xG values: Dalian 1.59 xG per match and Henan 1.58 xG; their xG conceded is 1.22 (Dalian) and 1.68 (Henan), which when averaged gives an expected 1.64 goals for the home side and 1.40 for the away side (total 3.04). In the last 5 matches Dalian averaged 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while Henan averaged 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded; additionally 80% of the home side’s last 5 games ended Over 2.5 goals. Season-wide both teams have 100% of matches with at least 0.5 goals, and BTTS is 67% for the home team and 50% for the visitors, further supporting goal occurrence. With an expected total of 3.04 goals the model estimates roughly an 81% probability for Over 1.5, 59% for Over 2.5 and 36% for Over 3.5, therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5. I choose Over 1.5 as the best line to play because it offers the highest probability of success (≈81%) and is backed by both xG and the home side’s recent form.

First-half statistics show the home side rarely score before the break — an average of 0.33 goals in the first 45 minutes and a clean sheet at half-time in 67% of matches, while the visitors average 1.0 goals by half-time. However, the hosts dominate the second half: the home team’s average goals after the break are 1.33 versus 0.5 for the visitors, and hosts score on average 0.67 goals after the break vs 0.0 for the away team, suggesting frequent turnarounds by the home side. Supporting this thesis is the home xG of 1.59 compared with the average xG conceded by the visitors’ defense of 1.68, as well as better form for the hosts in the last five matches (3 wins, 60% win rate, averaging 1.8 points per game versus 1.4 for the visitors). On this basis the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1); I assign this outcome a 34% probability, followed by 1/1 at 18% and X/X at 20%.