Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon: match statistics

Dalian Zhixing boast a very strong home record: they have won 67% of their matches, average 1.75 goals per game, and have not been held scoreless. Qingdao Jonoon lose as many as 85% of their away matches, concede an average of 2.46 goals, and have kept no clean sheets. The difference in the quality of chances created is confirmed by xG: the hosts record 1.74 at home, while the visitors allow opponents 1.71 xG away from home. Current form also clearly favors Dalian, who have collected 8 points from their last five matches, whereas Qingdao have lost all five and conceded 13 goals in the process. Although the hosts have scored just 5 goals in their last five games, the visitors’ weak defense and disastrous run should give them a clear advantage.

The BTTS - Yes pick is supported by Qingdao Jonoon’s high seasonal rate of such matches, at 77%, compared with 58% for Dalian Zhixing and a league average of 64%. The visitors have kept no clean sheets and concede an average of 2.46 goals per match, which significantly increases the hosts’ chances of scoring. Dalian average 1.50 goals and create chances worth 1.45 xG, while Qingdao’s defense allows an average of 1.71 xG. The main risk to this scenario is the visitors’ weaker current attacking output, with only 3 goals scored in their last 5 matches; however, their xG over that period stands at 1.49, while Dalian conceded an average of 1.0 goal. Both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five matches, making a Goal/Goal outcome more likely.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as at least two goals were scored in 67% of Dalian’s matches and in as many as 92% of Qingdao’s games. Qingdao have kept no clean sheets this season, conceding an average of 2.46 goals per match, while in their last five appearances they have allowed opponents to score 2.6 goals per game. Dalian create an average of 1.45 xG, while the visitors’ defense allows 1.71 xG on average, which clearly supports the hosts in the projection of 1.63 goals. The visitors have been less effective offensively in their recent form, scoring just 0.6 goals per match, but the hosts concede an average of 1.58 goals, making a scenario with two or three goals the most likely outcome.

Dalian Zhixing have a clear quality advantage: they average 1.50 goals per match, while Qingdao Jonoon concede as many as 2.46, with the visitors winning only 8% of their matches and losing 85%. The signal for a home lead at the break is particularly strong, as Dalian were ahead at half-time in 42% of their matches, while Qingdao were trailing at that stage in 62%; their respective first-half averages are 0.83 goals scored by the hosts and 1.15 conceded by the visitors. Recent form further supports the 1/1 scenario: Dalian led at half-time in 60% of their last five matches, while Qingdao failed to win any of them and suffered five defeats. The hosts are also more solid defensively in the opening stages, conceding an average of 0.42 goals before the break compared with Qingdao’s average of just 0.23 goals scored. After the interval, the visitors’ scoring threat increases, but their average of 0.92 goals in the second half does not offset a weak defense that concedes 1.31, making a Dalian win to be maintained the most likely outcome.