Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto: match statistics

Deportes Tolima has a clear home advantage: at home they average 1.9 goals scored and only 0.7 conceded, with 16.6 shots and 5.5 on target, translating to a 70% win rate and a +12 goal difference. Deportivo Pasto away averages 12.44 shots with 4.56 on target, scores 1.67 goals but concedes 1.89 per game, has a -2 goal difference and only 22% clean sheets, indicating defensive issues. In the last 5 matches Tolima scored 9 and conceded 3, averaging 2 points per game, while Pasto scored 8 and conceded 8, about 1.4 points per game, showing greater efficiency and stability from the hosts. xG confirms this gap: Tolima’s average home xG is 1.7 versus Pasto’s away xG of 1.33, and xG against is lower for Tolima (1.07 vs 1.35), meaning Tolima creates more high-quality chances and better neutralizes them. Considering higher possession (62% vs 51%), lower share of goalless games (10% vs 22%) and defensive edge (0.7 vs 1.89 conceded), I forecast a home win; suggested probabilities are 65% for 1, 20% for draw and 15% for 2.

Deportivo Pasto has BTTS in 67% of their matches this season and averages 1.67 goals with 4.56 shots on target, while Deportes Tolima has a season BTTS of 50%, averages 1.4 goals and concedes 0.8 goals per match. In the last 5 fixtures Tolima scored 9 and conceded 3 (avg 1.8 and 0.6), and Pasto scored 8 and conceded 8 (avg 1.6 and 1.6), indicating both teams have been finding the net recently. Seasonal xG for both sides is 1.33, but in the last 5 matches Tolima has xG_for 1.57 versus Pasto’s 1.19; Pasto compensates with a higher number of shots on target (4.56 vs 3.5) and superior conversion rate (13% vs 11%). Additionally, Pasto has 78% of matches over 2.5 goals this season versus Tolima’s 40%, and the league BTTS rate is 54%, all favoring a Goal/Goal scenario. Based on this I select BTTS - Yes with a probability of 60% and BTTS - No 40%.

I expect around 2.61 total goals: Tolima ~1.34 (xG 1.33 and xG against opponents 1.35 → average 1.34), and Pasto ~1.27 (xG 1.33 and xG against Tolima 1.20 → average 1.27). Seasonally Tolima has Over 1.5 in 70% of matches, Pasto in 78%, and both teams have scored at least once in 50% and 67% of games respectively, which strongly supports the Over 1.5 option (I assess 84% probability). Over 2.5 is more balanced: Pasto away records 78% of matches over 2.5, Tolima at home only 40%, therefore I give Over 2.5 a 58% probability, supported by the combined xG of 2.61 and the league average of 2.53 goals. Over 3.5 looks unlikely, as Tolima has only 10% of season matches >3.5 and has conceded an average of 0.6 goals in the last 5 matches (Pasto 1.6), so I rate Over 3.5 at 26%. The best line to play is Over 1.5, because both teams have high Over 1.5 rates (70% and 78%) and projected xG 1.34+1.27 = 2.61, which gives a strong edge to this option.

The most likely scenario is a Half-Time draw and a Full-Time win for the home side (X/1), because Deportes Tolima were leading at the break in 4 matches (40%) and level at half-time in 6 (60%), conceding only 0.2 goals on average before the break and keeping a clean sheet at half-time in 80% of games. Deportivo Pasto average 0.67 goals by half-time away but concede 0.78 and are trailing at the break in 33% of matches, which reduces their chances of leading after 45 minutes. Over the full match Tolima score 1.4 goals and concede 0.8 on average, while Pasto concede 1.89 goals per game; additionally Tolima average 2.0 points at home versus Pasto’s 1.56 points away, which favors the home side for the final result. Both teams have similar attacking xG (1.33 vs 1.33), but Tolima have a lower xG against (1.20 vs Pasto’s 1.35) and Pasto score more in the second half (on average 2.11), suggesting a turnaround after the break in Tolima’s favor.