Deportivo Morón vs Almagro: match statistics

Deportivo Morón are extremely strong at home: they win 75% of such fixtures, remain unbeaten, and average 2.00 goals per match. Almagro win just 17% of their away games, score only 0.67 goals per match, and fail to score in as many as 58% of fixtures. The hosts create significantly better chances, as reflected by an average xG of 1.65 compared with Almagro’s 0.97, while also recording a lower xG conceded: 0.98 versus 1.92. Morón’s advantage is also evident in their overall game organization, with 52% possession, 12.5 shots, and 4.58 shots on target per match, compared with 41%, 7.17, and 2.83 respectively for the visitors. Almagro’s last five matches offer no evidence of an imminent turnaround, as they scored just 5 goals and won only once, making a home win the most likely outcome.

The BTTS - No scenario is more likely, as Deportivo Morón records BTTS in only 33% of matches, while Almagro does so in 42%, compared with the league average of 41%. The biggest obstacle to the Goal/Goal outcome is the visitors’ attack: Almagro scores just 0.67 goals per match on average and fails to score in 58% of fixtures. Morón keeps a clean sheet in 42% of matches and concedes only 0.75 goals on average, significantly increasing the chance that Almagro will once again end the game without scoring. The hosts should have the better chance of finding the net, as Almagro concedes an average of 1.50 goals, while their opponents create an average of 1.92 xG against them. Although the last five meetings between the two teams produced BTTS in 60% of cases, this short-term trend does not outweigh Almagro’s poor season-long scoring record and the hosts’ defensive profile.

The season profile clearly points to a low-scoring outcome: Deportivo Morón have recorded fewer than 3.5 goals in 100% of their matches, while Almagro have done so in 83%. The hosts concede just 0.75 goals per match on average and keep a clean sheet in 42% of their appearances, while Almagro score only 0.67 goals per game and fail to score in 58% of matches. Even despite Morón’s stronger recent run, during which the team scored 11 goals in 5 matches, their average xG over that period stands at just 1.19, indicating above-average finishing efficiency. The estimated 2.28 goals point to a realistic possibility of two goals, but the data on total goals exceeding 3.5—recorded in 0% of the hosts’ matches and 17% of the visitors’—gives a clear edge to the Under 3.5 goals option.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Deportivo Morón victory at full-time, as the hosts were level at the break in 67% of their matches and scored just 0.08 goals per game in the first halves. Almagro are also not a team that starts strongly: they were trailing at half-time in 42% of matches and conceded an average of 0.75 goals before the break. After half-time, Morón’s advantage increases significantly, with the hosts scoring an average of 1.0 goal and winning the second half in 57% of cases, while Almagro score only 0.25 goals during that period and fail to score in 75% of such halves. The hosts’ overall season record also supports a full-time victory: Morón have won 50% of their matches compared with 17% for Almagro, while the visitors have conceded an average of 1.50 goals per game.