Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Cali: match statistics

Deportivo Cali are favorites primarily due to their current form: they have won their last 5 matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding just 2, while Deportivo Pereira have failed to win during that period and have conceded 11 goals. The hosts have won just 7% of their home matches, scoring an average of 0.86 goals and failing to find the net in 43% of games. The visitors score an average of 1 goal away from home, and their xG stands at 1.26 compared with Pereira’s 1.15 xG at home, pointing to a slight edge in the quality of chances created. Cali’s prospects are tempered by their away record: they have lost 47% of such matches, with opponents averaging 1.52 xG. Even so, the visitors’ winning streak and the average of 1.57 goals Pereira concede at home favor a Cali win.

It is more likely that at least one team will fail to score: Pereira keeps a clean sheet in 50% of home matches, while Cali fail to score in 33% of away games. Their season-long BTTS - Yes rates are 44% and 47%, respectively, both below the league average of 55%. In their last 5 matches, Pereira have scored an average of just 0.8 goals, while Cali have conceded only 0.4, increasing the risk of a goal-less outing for the hosts. Cali’s attacking form weighs against this pick, however: they have scored 2.2 goals per match in their last 5 games, while Pereira have conceded 2.2. Even so, Pereira’s recent lack of scoring and their solid defensive record at home over the season give the BTTS - No scenario the edge. This means at least one team is expected not to score; it does not necessarily mean a 0:0 draw.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this outcome occurred in 81% of Deportivo Pereira’s matches and 93% of Deportivo Cali’s. Full-season averages also favor this line—the hosts score 1.56 goals and concede 0.63, while the visitors average 1.00 for both. However, caution is warranted: Pereira conceded an average of 2.2 goals in its last five matches, while Cali scored 2.2; at least three goals were scored in 80% and 60% of their matches in that period, respectively. Therefore, the 2.49-goal prediction does not offer as strong an edge on the 2.5 line, but still points to fewer than four goals.

The strongest signal points to Deportivo Cali leading at the break and maintaining their advantage through full time: the visitors have won their last five matches, led at half-time in four of them, and conceded no first-half goals in any of them. Over the same period, Deportivo Pereira have not won once and went into half-time trailing in three of five matches, conceding an average of 1.4 goals before the break compared with Cali’s 0.8 goals scored. After the break, the visitors have recently averaged 1.4 goals, while the hosts have managed just 0.4, increasing the likelihood that any lead will be held. The 2/2 pick nevertheless warrants caution: over a broader sample, Pereira have won 56% of matches and Cali 33%, so home-win scenarios also account for a significant share of the forecast.