Derby County vs Cardiff City: match statistics

Cardiff City are showing significantly better form: they have won 4, drawn once and scored 19 goals in their last five matches. Over the same period, Derby County have suffered 4 defeats, won just once, and their 7:10 goal record highlights defensive problems in particular. The visitors have averaged 3.8 goals per game in their last five appearances, while the hosts have conceded an average of 2.0 goals, creating a favorable matchup for Cardiff’s attack. Cardiff have also averaged 2.6 points per game during this run, compared with Derby’s 0.6, and sit 11th in the table, while their opponents are 17th. The early-season results remain modest for both sides, but the recent trend clearly favors an away victory.

The BTTS signal is clear, as both teams have scored and conceded in 100% of their last 5 matches, compared with a league average of 83%. Derby have averaged 1.4 goals scored during this period but conceded as many as 2.0, while their opponents created chances worth 1.88 xG per match. Cardiff are in even stronger offensive form: they have scored 19 goals in 5 games, averaging 3.8, while Derby have not kept a clean sheet in the current campaign. The hosts should also find the net, with their average xG standing at 1.44 over the last five matches, while Cardiff allow opponents 1.35 xG and have conceded 6 goals during this period. The most likely scenario is therefore at least one goal for each team, although Cardiff’s high attacking efficiency also increases the risk of a one-sided result.

Derby’s last five matches produced an average of 3.4 goals, with the team scoring 1.4 and conceding as many as 2.0 per game. Cardiff are in excellent attacking form, scoring 19 goals in their last five appearances, an average of 3.8, while both teams scored in 100% of their respective last matches. Derby allow opponents an average of 1.88 xG, supporting the prospect of at least one away goal, although Cardiff’s xG of 1.24 suggests their recent scoring efficiency may partially decline. Over 2.5 goals landed in 100% of Derby’s last five matches and in 80% of Cardiff’s games, making the Over 1.5 line the safest option with a projected total of 3.20 goals.

Cardiff City are showing significantly better current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 3.8 goals, while Derby have lost 4 of their last 5 games and conceded an average of 2.0 goals. The visitors tend to start matches very strongly, having led at the break in 75% of their recent games, with an average of 2.5 goals scored before half-time; Derby scored 1.0 goal during this period. Cardiff’s advantage also persists after the interval, as the hosts conceded an average of 1.25 goals in second halves while scoring just 0.5 themselves. The most likely scenario is therefore Cardiff leading at half-time and seeing out the victory, although the limited amount of seasonal data increases the risk of a draw at half-time.