Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.: match statistics

Derry City hold a slight home-edge: average home xG is 2.01 versus St Patrick's Athl 1.73 xG on the road, with hosts registering 6.5 SOT and 61% possession compared to visitors' 4.88 SOT and 53% possession. Hosts average 1.63 goals per home match, visitors score 1.38 away; averaged xG implies expected goals of ~1.62 for Derry and 1.35 for St Patrick's Athl. Nonetheless, St Patrick's Athl display superior season figures (31 goals scored vs Derry's 21) and an impressive 12 goals in the last 5 matches versus Derry's 5, plus 1.6 points per match in the last 5 compared to the hosts' 1.2. Defensively the differences are marginal: Derry concede 1.38 goals at home (xG against 0.97), while St Patrick's Athl concede 1.25 on the road (xG against 1.23) with 25% clean sheets for the visitors versus 13% for the hosts. Considering ball control, higher chance volume and Derry's low share of scoreless games (FTS 13% vs 38% St Patrick's Athl), I give a slight edge to the home side in this matchup.

Both teams have season BTTS rates of 44% (Derry City) and 50% (St Patrick's), and in the last 5 matches both sides record BTTS at 60%, indicating an increased probability of both teams scoring. Derry City averages 2.22 goals at home (xG 2.03) and 6.56 shots on target per match, while St Patrick's away averages 1.38 goals (xG 1.73) and 4.88 shots on target, so both teams possess realistic offensive capabilities. The hosts concede only 0.67 goals at home on average and keep a clean sheet in 33% of matches, whereas the visitors concede 1.25 goals away and have 25% clean sheets; despite the hosts' better defense, the visitors have been scoring more recently (last 5: St Patrick's 12 goals vs Derry 5). Additionally, the league has a season BTTS of 57% and averages 2.7 goals per match, which together with the recent 60% BTTS in the last 5 matches for both sides supports a Goal/Goal scenario, therefore I recommend BTTS - Yes.

Based on xG: Derry’s attack has xG 2.03, St Patrick's defense xG against 1.23 — averaging these yields about 1.63 expected goals for the home side; similarly the visitors’ attack xG 1.73 and the home defense xG against 1.15 give about 1.44 for the away side, totaling 3.07. Derry averages 2.22 goals per game this season and registers 6.56 shots on target, St Patrick's averages 1.38 goals and 4.88 shots on target; Derry’s superior finishing (conversion rate 12% vs. 9% for the visitors) increases the likelihood of chances being converted. Seasonally 56% of Derry’s matches and 88% of St Patrick's matches finish over 1.5 goals, and 56% of Derry and 38% of St Patrick's are over 2.5; in the last 5 games the combined goals average is 3.4 (1.0 Derry, 2.4 St Patrick's), which supports a higher-scoring scenario. Given the projected 3.07 goals — clearly above the league average of 2.7 — and the high seasonal over-1.5 rate for the visitors, the best play is over 1.5 (I assess the probability at 86%), over 2.5 is moderately likely (65%), and over 3.5 is less certain (36%).

HT stats suggest a draw at the break: Derry drew in the first half in 44% of matches and St Patrick's in 50%, yielding roughly a 47% chance of a HT draw. Derry has a clear advantage after the break — they average 1.44 goals scored and only 0.11 conceded in the second half, and in second halves they average 2.22 points and a 67% win rate. Seasonal figures confirm the home-side edge: home points 2.11 vs away 1.50, xG 2.03 vs 1.73, and win efficiency 67% for Derry versus 38% for St Patrick's. For these reasons the most justified scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win after 90 minutes (X/1) — I assign it a 26% probability; the 1/1 variant has similar support (26%) as an alternative, while a turnaround by the visitors (e.g. 1/2) I rate low at 2% given Derry’s minimal average second-half goals conceded (0.11) and their xG advantage.