Dila vs Rustavi: match statistics

I back Rustavi to win ('2') because the visitors have won 4 of the last 5 matches versus just 1 win for Dila in that period, and their average points across the last five matches are 2.4 versus 0.8 for the hosts. This season Rustavi have 9 wins and 22 goals scored, while Dila have 7 wins and 18 goals; the visitors have conceded 15 goals versus Dila’s 19 and sit 1st in the table compared to the hosts’ 7th. In terms of chance quality xG is effectively level: Rustavi have xG 1.43 away, Dila xG 1.41 at home; nonetheless the visitors concede only 0.89 goals on average away versus Dila’s 1.00 at home, which favors Rustavi’s superior defensive record. Dila have an edge in on-target shots at home (3.89 vs 3.33) and possession (49% vs 46%), but conversion rates are similar (9% vs 8%) and both teams fail to score in 33% of such matches. Considering form (Rustavi 4/5 wins), better defensive efficiency over the last 5 matches (Rustavi conceded 3 goals vs 9 for Dila) and nearly identical xG, I assess probabilities as 58% for Rustavi, 24% for a draw and 18% for Dila.

Rustavi has a seasonal away BTTS rate of 67% and an xG for 1.43, while xG against Dila is 1.23, suggesting the visitors create scoring opportunities. Dila scores 1.56 goals seasonally and concedes 0.78 with 56% clean sheets at home, but in the last 5 matches Dila conceded an average of 1.8 goals and had BTTS in 60% of games, indicating increasing vulnerability. Rustavi averages 0.89 goals this season and has a low shot conversion of 8%, yet in the last 5 matches they scored 6 goals (1.2 per game), pointing to improved finishing. xG comparison (Dila 1.28 vs Rustavi 1.43 and xG against 1.23 vs 1.21) shows both teams generate around 1.2–1.4 xG, and the league BTTS level is 56%, which further favors a both teams to score scenario. Considering Rustavi’s high BTTS rate (67%), Dila’s recent defensive issues (1.8 conceded in the last 5) and the overall league BTTS level, I assign a higher probability to the “yes” option (BTTS - Yes).

Based on xG: expected goals (xG) are 1.28 for Dila and 1.43 for Rustavi; xG against are 1.23 for Dila and 1.21 for Rustavi. Averaging attack xG and defense xG yields about 1.25 goals for Dila and 1.33 for Rustavi, totalling 2.58 goals. Seasonal averages show Dila scores 1.56 goals at home, while Rustavi scores 0.89 away, but Rustavi is in better form (last 5: 'wlwww') and their opponents in the last five matches averaged only 0.6 goals, whereas Dila conceded an average of 1.8 goals. Over 1.5 lands in home matches 56% and in away matches 67%, and the league averages 2.57 goals per match — therefore I assign 72% to Over 1.5 as the strongest signal. Over 2.5 is more uncertain (seasonal Over 2.5: 56% vs 33%, forecast ~54%), and Over 3.5 is unlikely (11% and 0%).

Dila led at the break in 4 of 9 home matches (44%), while the half-time draw occurred in 5 of 9 (56%), so HT is most often a draw. Over the full match the hosts have a strong home record (78% wins), although in the last 5 games Dila have won only 20% while Rustavi have 80% wins in their last 5, which weakens the home advantage. In the first half Dila average 0.78 goals scored and concede 0.33, Rustavi score 0.33 and concede 0.11, and in the second half Dila have the better numbers (score 0.78 and concede 0.44 versus Rustavi 0.56/0.78), suggesting a decision after the break. xG is 1.28 for Dila versus 1.43 for Rustavi, but shot conversion 16% vs 8% favors the hosts’ finishing, so the most reliable scenario is a draw at half-time and a Dila victory at full-time (X/1).