Dinamo Tbilisi vs Dinamo Batumi: match statistics

Dinamo Tbilisi has a clear advantage in chance creation: home xG averages 1.81 versus Dinamo Batumi’s 1.23 xG on the road, and 5.44 shots on target per match versus 2.78 for the visitors. The hosts average 14.89 shots per match and score 1.44 goals at home with a conversion rate of 10%, while Batumi register 9.67 shots away and 1.22 goals with a 13% efficiency. Defensively Tbilisi concede 1.22 goals per home match and keep clean sheets in 22% of games, whereas Batumi concede 1.56 goals away and only have 11% clean sheets, which favors the hosts. At the same time the visitors show better recent point form over the last 5 matches: 2.0 points per game versus 1.4 for Tbilisi and 3 wins in those five matches, which raises the upset risk. Considering the higher xG (1.81 vs 1.23), greater shot volume and superior home defense, I tip a Dinamo Tbilisi win; probabilities estimated at 50% home, 30% draw, 20% away.

Dinamo Tbilisi has a seasonal BTTS rate of 67% versus Dinamo Batumi’s 56% and a 56% league average, providing a baseline signal in favor of a both-teams-to-score scenario. Both teams concede on average 1.56 goals per season; in the last 5 matches the home side conceded 1.4 on average and the away side 1.6, so the risk of each team conceding is material. The home team produces xG 1.41 and scores 1.78 goals on average for the season; the away team has xG 1.23 and 1.22 goals. Additionally, in the last 5 matches the home side had xG 2.14 and averaged 2.4 goals scored, while the away side had xG 1.15 and 2.0 goals scored, showing real attacking potential on both sides. Clean sheets are rare — only 11% of matches for each team — and BTTS occurred in 60% of their last 5 fixtures for both, which further increases the likelihood of both teams scoring. Based on these figures (seasonal BTTS 67%/56%, last 5 matches 60%/60%, low 11% clean sheets, clear xG and goals averages) I forecast BTTS - Yes with a probability of 72% versus 28% No.

I estimate Dinamo Tbilisi to score about 1.80 goals and Dinamo Batumi about 1.46 goals, totaling 3.26 goals; this value was derived by averaging season means (Tbilisi 1.78, Batumi 1.22) and form from the last 5 matches (Tbilisi 2.4, Batumi 2.0) plus conceded goals data (Batumi concedes 1.56 in the season, Tbilisi concedes 1.04 in the last 5). With a combined expected goals of 3.26 the Poisson distribution implies Over 1.5 ≈84% (P(0)+P(1)≈0.164 → Over1.5≈0.836), Over 2.5 ≈63% (P(≤2)≈0.368 → Over2.5≈0.632) and Over 3.5 ≈41%. Seasonal proportions confirm this direction: the home side has 89% of matches Over 1.5 and 78% Over 2.5, the away side 67% and 56% respectively, and both teams have Over 0.5 in the season 100% (home) and 89% (away). Additionally xG and shot statistics reinforce the attacking scenario — Tbilisi xG 1.41 with 11.33 shots and 4.0 on target per match versus Batumi xG 1.23 with 9.67/2.78 — therefore the strongest signal from the data is a play on Over 1.5 (highest probability ≈84%), while Over 2.5 is also justified (≈63%).

Dinamo Tbilisi holds a clear statistical edge: 56% home win rate, an average of 1.78 goals scored and xG 1.41 versus Dinamo Batumi’s 1.22 goals and xG 1.23, and 4.0 shots on target versus 2.78, all favoring a home victory at full-time. Despite this, Batumi have led at the break in 56% of their season’s matches and were leading at half-time in 60% of their last five games, so the visitors more often dictate the first 45 minutes. After the break, however, the advantage shifts to Tbilisi: the hosts average 0.78 goals in second halves and collect 1.33 points after half-time, while Batumi manage only 0.33 goals and 0.56 points in second halves; in the last five matches the hosts average 1.4 second-half goals versus 0.8 for the visitors. Given these specific numbers, the strongest signal is the HT/FT 2/1 scenario – the visitors lead at the break, and the hosts complete the turnaround to win ultimately.