Dinamo Zagreb vs Varaždin: match statistics

Dinamo Zagreb is the clear favorite: at home they score on average 3 goals per match with an average xG of 2.11, while Varaždin score 1.13 goals away with an xG of 1.29. The hosts create significantly more chances — on average 17.6 shots and 7.07 on target per match with a conversion of 17%, versus 10.73 shots, 3.67 on target and 11% conversion for the visitors away. Defensively Dinamo concedes only 0.93 goals at home (xG against 0.89), while Varaždin concede 1.33 away (xG against 1.76); the hosts have 33% clean sheets at home versus 20% clean sheets for the visitors on the road. In the last 5 matches Dinamo scored 21 goals and average 2.6 points, while Varaždin have 7 goals and 2.0 points in that period; additionally the hosts win 80% of home matches, and the visitors win 33% of away games. Considering the home goal difference (+31 vs -3), 0% FTS for Dinamo versus 27% FTS for the visitors, and the advantage in xG and shooting situations, I predict a home win.

Both teams have high BTTS rates this season: Dinamo 63% and Varaždin 60%, against a league average of 55%, and in the last 5 matches both teams also record 60% BTTS, which clearly favors a both-teams-to-score scenario. Dinamo has been scoring exceptionally recently — 4.2 goals on average in the last 5 matches (21 goals), with xG 2.2 in that sample and season xG_for 1.5, while conceding 1.2 goals in the last 5 and 1.25 seasonally, so their offense is creating chances and the defense is not completely secure. Varaždin scores 1.13 goals seasonally with xG_for 1.29, scored 7 goals in the last 5 matches (1.4 per game) and conceded 0.8 per game in that span, but concedes 1.33 seasonally and has only 20% clean sheets, so they have sufficient potential to score at least once against an offensively active opponent. xG against (1.68 for Dinamo vs 1.76 for Varaždin), higher shots (13.06 vs 10.73) and shots on target (4.06 vs 3.67) confirm that both sides create chances, and season BTTS stats 63%/60% plus over25 with BTTS 44%/47% further support the hypothesis of goals from both sides. Based on this I pick BTTS - Yes as the more likely scenario, with a probability estimate of 72% for 'yes' versus 28% for 'no'.

Based on average xG I expect Dinamo Zagreb to score about 1.63 goals (average of 1.50 xG for Dinamo and 1.76 xG typically conceded by Varaždin), and Varaždin about 1.49 goals (average of 1.29 xG for Varaždin and 1.68 xG typically conceded by Dinamo); total ~3.12 goals. Seasonal stats confirm a high incidence of matches with at least 2 goals: Over 1.5 occurred in 81% of Dinamo’s games and 80% of Varaždin’s games (average ~81%). For the 2.5 line, season-long Over was recorded in 50% of Dinamo’s matches and 47% of Varaždin’s (average ~48.5%), but in the last 5 rounds Dinamo produced Over 2.5 in 80% of fixtures and Varaždin in 40% (average 60%), which together with the xG total of 3.12 shifts the balance toward the over. The 3.5 line is less supported: season-long Over 3.5 is 31% for Dinamo and 27% for Varaždin (average ~29%), so under 3.5 is statistically stronger. As a result I recommend betting Over 2.5 as the best option, with expected goals of 1.63 for the home team and 1.49 for the away team (total 3.12).

Dinamo led at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches (80%) and in those games they averaged 1.8 goals by half-time, while Varaždin averaged 1.0 goal by half-time in the same period. This season the home side have a 50% win rate and average 1.44 goals per match, whereas the visitors have a 33% win rate and 1.13 goals per match, giving Dinamo the advantage for the final result. The home advantage is supported by xG of 1.5 versus 1.29 and more shots on target (4.06 vs 3.67), however the percentage of matches with both teams scoring is 63% for Dinamo and 60% for Varaždin, so a response from the visitors is possible. Considering the 80% rate of leading at the break in the last five and superior xG/shots, the most likely scenario is Dinamo leading at half-time and winning at full-time (HT/FT 1/1). I therefore assign the highest weight to the 1/1 scenario (49%), with smaller shares for 1/X (14%) and X/X (10%) as realistic alternatives.