Dubrava Zagreb vs Bijelo Brdo: match statistics

Bijelo Brdo sit 5th, while Dubrava Zagreb are 10th, and the visitors have won 3 of their 6 league matches compared with the hosts’ 2 victories. Both teams are in similar form, but Bijelo Brdo have collected 9 points from their last 5 matches, compared with Dubrava’s 8, and have scored 7 goals during that period versus 5 for their opponents. The key factor is the visitors’ superiority in chance creation: away from home, they average 9.5 shots and 5.5 shots on target per match, while Dubrava record just 5 and 2.5 respectively at home. The hosts are more efficient in front of goal, but their xG is only 0.82 compared with Bijelo Brdo’s 1.37, and they also allow opponents chances worth an average xG of 1.84. Both teams concede an average of 1.5 goals at home and have failed to keep a clean sheet, so the visitors should have a slight edge in a match where both sides score.

Both teams have recorded goals at both ends in 50% of their matches this season, while over their last five games this figure has risen to 60% for each side, slightly above the league average of 56%. Bijelo Brdo score an average of 1.5 goals per match and register 5.5 shots on target, while Dubrava score 1.0 goal, but the hosts’ opponents generate a high 1.43 xG. The visitors have kept no clean sheets, conceding an average of 1.5 goals, which clearly supports a Dubrava goal. On the other hand, the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches and have scored only 1.0 goal per game on average across their last five fixtures. Therefore, the BTTS edge is limited but remains valid, while Bijelo Brdo’s current attacking form supports the “BTTS - Yes” pick.

The projection of 2.42 goals is based on Dubrava’s solid defense, conceding an average of 0.75 goals, combined with Bijelo Brdo’s attack, scoring 1.50 goals per match. The hosts have not exceeded the 3.5-goal line in any of their matches so far, while this outcome occurred in 50% of the visitors’ games. In their last five appearances, Dubrava scored just 1.0 goal per match, with an average xG of only 0.80, limiting the potential for a very high-scoring game. Bijelo Brdo creates more danger, averaging 1.44 xG and 5.5 shots on target, but the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches. The strongest option is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as the data points more towards a 2-3 goal range than an open game with at least four goals.

Dubrava Zagreb has a clear first-half profile: they have led at the break in 50% of their matches, scoring an average of 0.5 goals and conceding just 0.5, while Bijelo Brdo have yet to score before half-time. In their last five matches, the hosts were ahead after 45 minutes on 40% of occasions, while the visitors were trailing at that stage in 40% of matches. After the interval, Bijelo Brdo are more dangerous, averaging 1.5 goals scored; however, Dubrava concede only 0.25 goals per match in the second half and keep a clean sheet in 75% of such halves. The hosts also have the stronger defensive record over the season, conceding an average of 0.75 goals compared with 1.5 for the visitors, supporting the scenario of taking the lead at half-time and holding on for the win.