Dundee vs Hibernian: match statistics

Dundee have a clear edge in chance creation at home: they average 18 shots, including 7 on target, with an xG of 1.96. Hibernian manage just 0.83 xG and 2 shots on target per away match, while simultaneously allowing opponents as much as 3.15 xG—an aspect that could prove crucial against an active home side. Dundee won their only home match so far 2:0, keeping a clean sheet, whereas despite their away victory, the visitors concede an average of 1 goal and have not recorded a clean sheet. Hibernian nevertheless remain unbeaten in their last five matches, with a record of 3 wins and 2 draws and only 2 goals conceded, making a draw a realistic outcome. Dundee’s superior chance quality and home advantage, however, point towards a narrow victory for the hosts.

Seasonal data clearly supports goals at both ends: Dundee and Hibernian each have BTTS in 100% of their matches, and neither team has kept a clean sheet. Dundee create plenty of chances at home, averaging 2.08 xG, 19 shots and 6 shots on target per match, while Hibernian allow as much as 3.15 xG on average away from home. The visitors are less active offensively, with away xG of just 0.83, but they score an average of 2.0 goals per match and convert 25% of their shots, giving them a solid case to score. Caution is warranted based on recent form: BTTS occurred in 0% of Dundee’s last five matches and 40% of Hibernian’s, with the teams conceding an average of 0.8 and 0.4 goals respectively. Despite this defensive improvement, the current stylistic matchup—particularly Hibernian’s weak away defense and the lack of clean sheets on either side this season—gives a slight lean towards BTTS - Yes.

The latest form of both teams points to a lower total goal tally: Dundee have scored 1.6 goals and conceded 0.8 across their last five matches, while Hibernian have recorded 1.0 and just 0.4, respectively. Only 40% of each team’s last five matches went Over 2.5 goals, significantly weakening the case for an open game. Dundee do create plenty of chances at home, averaging 2.08 xG and 19 shots, but their conversion rate is only 5%, meaning their attacking potential may not translate into a high-scoring game. Hibernian average 8 shots and post 0.83 xG, making the projected 0.87 goals for the visitors a moderate estimate. With 2.35 expected goals, the most stable option is Under 3.5 goals, as a result of at least four goals would require a clear departure from both teams’ recent defensive form.

The strongest scenario is a half-time draw followed by a Dundee win at full-time, as both teams were level after 45 minutes in 60% of their last five matches, while each averaged only 0.4 goals before the break. Dundee nevertheless has a clear edge in chance creation: its average home xG is 2.08 compared with Hibernian’s 0.83 away from home, while the hosts average 19 shots and 6 on target, against 8 and 2 for the visitors. Overall form remains evenly matched, but Dundee has averaged 1.6 goals in its last five matches, compared with just 1.0 for Hibernian, and the hosts won the second half in 60% of those games, versus 20% for their opponents. Hibernian is difficult to beat, having avoided defeat in this run and conceded only 0.4 goals per match, which is why a half-time draw is more likely than Dundee taking an early lead. After the break, the hosts average 1.2 goals, and their attacking superiority should allow them to turn an evenly balanced match in their favor.