Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers: match statistics
Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Dungannon Swifts played against Carrick Rangers in NIFL Premiership (Northern Ireland). The game was played on May 6, 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Recent form
Dungannon Swifts has 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses over its last five games, averaging 0.00 points per game. Carrick Rangers has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, with 2.00 points per game.
Scoring records
Dungannon Swifts scores 1.11 goals per game and allows 2.03. Carrick Rangers scores 1.68 and allows 1.53. Games in this league average 2.93 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 39% of Dungannon Swifts's games and 66% of Carrick Rangers's. The Over 2.5 rates are 55% and 61%, compared with league averages of 51% for BTTS and 55% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Dungannon Swifts has the higher season xG average, 1.43 to 1.33 per game. Dungannon Swifts takes 10.8 shots per game, while Carrick Rangers takes 9.8.
First-half and second-half trends
Dungannon Swifts leads at halftime in 21% of its games and scores 0.42 goals per game after halftime. Carrick Rangers leads at halftime in 37% and scores 0.71 after halftime.
When the teams score
Dungannon Swifts's most productive scoring window is minutes 0-15 (9 goals). For Carrick Rangers, it is minutes 31-45+ (22 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
NIFL Premiership games average 2.93 goals. Both teams score in 51% of games, and 55% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 3 previous meetings were available. The record was 0 home wins, 1 draw and 2 away wins. Those games averaged 4.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back a Carrick Rangers win (2): the visitors are in markedly better form over the last five matches — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, scoring 15 goals in that span (3.0 per game), while Dungannon Swifts have failed to win any of their last 5 (0-0-5) and conceded 20 goals (4.0 per game). Over the season Carrick have 64 goals scored versus Dungannon’s 42; hosts generate slightly more on-target shots at home (5.16 vs 4.42 per game), but the visitors are more efficient in finishing — conversion 17% vs 12%, which translates to 1.68 away goals per game vs 1.47 for the home side. xG indicates Dungannon creates higher-quality chances at home (xG 1.65 vs away xG 1.31), however Carrick are better at converting those opportunities (15 goals in the last 5). Defensively the edge is also with the visitors: Dungannon have conceded 77 goals this season vs Carrick’s 58, and they concede on average 1.58 goals per game at home compared to Carrick’s 1.42 conceded on the road. Given form, the visitors’ superior efficiency and the hosts’ recent defensive issues, I assess Carrick at 65% probability, draw 20% and Dungannon win 15%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The signal favors BTTS - Yes: seasonal BTTS rates are 68% (Dungannon) and 63% (Carrick) versus the league average of 51%, supporting a both-teams-to-score scenario. Carrick shows strong attacking form — 15 goals in the last 5 matches (3.0 per match), 80% BTTS in that period and 64 goals this season — while Dungannon has conceded 20 goals in the last 5 (4.0 per match) and 77 goals on the season, so goals for both home and away look likely. Dungannon’s short-term weakness is attack: only 3 goals in the last 5 (0.6 per match) despite a seasonal average of 1.68, which reduces confidence in their scoring; however Carrick have recently conceded 1.4 goals on average in five matches (7 conceded), so the home side has realistic scoring chances. xG and shots confirm the exchange of chances: home seasonal xG is 1.35 with xG against 1.38; Carrick xG is 1.31 with xG against 1.46, and average shots on target are 4.06 vs 4.42 — this suggests chance creation on both sides. Considering 68% vs 63% seasonal BTTS, Carrick’s 80% BTTS in the last 5 matches and Dungannon’s poor defense (77 conceded this season), I assess BTTS 'yes' probability at 72% versus 28% for 'no'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model predicts 1.40 goals for Dungannon (attacking xG 1.35 and opponent xG against 1.46 → (1.35+1.46)/2≈1.405) and 1.35 for Carrick (attacking xG 1.31 and opponent xG against 1.38 → (1.31+1.38)/2≈1.345), totaling ~2.75 goals. Both teams average 1.68 goals scored per game this season; Dungannon concedes 1.63 on average and Carrick 1.42. The percentage of matches in which both teams scored is 68% (home) and 63% (away), which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Seasonal percentages for Over 1.5 are 79% for Dungannon and 84% for Carrick (average ~81.5%), and the league averages 2.93 goals per match, so Over 1.5 has strong justification. Seasonal Over 2.5 rates are 63% for the home side and 58% for the away side (average ~60.5%), but the last 5 matches show Carrick scored 15 goals while Dungannon conceded 20, which lifts the chances for Over 2.5 to around 64%. Over 3.5 has weaker seasonal backing (32%/37%), therefore my top pick is Over 1.5 — the strongest signal given the predicted 2.75 goals and high seasonal Over 1.5 percentages.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Carrick Rangers victory after 90 minutes (X/2): the hosts were level at the break in 9 matches, i.e. in 47% of cases. Carrick are in better form — in their last 5 matches they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (W D W W), which gives a 60% win rate in that run, while Dungannon have form 'LLLLL' and a 0% win rate in their last five. In the first half the visitors average 1.11 goals compared to 0.84 for the hosts, and in the last 5 matches this is 1.0 vs 0.2 respectively, which increases their potential to score the decisive goal. After the break the advantage is confirmed by the numbers — in the last 5 matches Carrick average 2.0 goals after half-time versus 0.4 for Dungannon, and the season win percentages are 42% for Carrick against 37% for the hosts. Additionally, the visitors record 4.42 shots on target and 17% accuracy versus 4.06 and 16% for the hosts, so the strongest signal from the data is X/2.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Dungannon Swifts | Carrick Rangers | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 42% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Carrick Rangers is 51% better for: goals scored per game.
1.11 goals / game - Dungannon Swifts · 1.68 goals / game - Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers is 33% better for: goals allowed per game.
2.03 goals / game - Dungannon Swifts · 1.53 goals / game - Carrick Rangers
Dungannon Swifts scores in 63% of games (24 of 38 meczów), while Carrick Rangers keeps a clean sheet in 21% (8 of 38 meczów).
Carrick Rangers scores in 84% of games (32 of 38 meczów), while Dungannon Swifts keeps a clean sheet in 24% (9 of 38 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Dungannon Swifts
Over / Under - Carrick Rangers
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Carrick Rangers is 40% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.05 pts / game - Dungannon Swifts · 1.47 pts / game - Carrick Rangers
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Dungannon Swifts - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 21% of games and wins 39%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Carrick Rangers - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 37% of games and wins 39%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| Average goals per game | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 0% |
| No goal | 60% | 100% |
| Goal difference | -6 | -11 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +7 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (9 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (18). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (22 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Dungannon Swifts
Carrick Rangers
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (NIFL Premiership).
Teams vs league
| Dungannon Swifts | Liga | Carrick Rangers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 3.13 | 2.93 | ▲ 3.21 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 39% | 51% | ▲ 66% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 55% | 55% | ▲ 61% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 24% | 27% | ▼ 21% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 79% | 76% | ▲ 82% |
| Goal after half-time | • 79% | 80% | ▼ 76% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Dungannon Swifts's perspective: 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses against Carrick Rangers. Games average 4.67 goals, and both teams scored in 67% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers?
The NIFL Premiership match finished Dungannon Swifts 3:1 Carrick Rangers. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Dungannon Swifts and Carrick Rangers?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Dungannon Swifts won 0, Carrick Rangers won 2 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 4.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers?
Dungannon Swifts score 1.11 goals per game on average and Carrick Rangers 1.68. The NIFL Premiership average is 2.93 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 39% of Dungannon Swifts's matches and 66% of Carrick Rangers's.
What form are Dungannon Swifts and Carrick Rangers in?
Over the last 5 games Dungannon Swifts have a 0-0-5 record (0.00 points per game) and Carrick Rangers 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers?
The statistical background for Dungannon Swifts vs Carrick Rangers — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.