Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Dinamo Tirana: match statistics

Egnatia Rrogozhinë is the favorite: at home they have won 50% of matches, in the last 5 fixtures they recorded 4 wins and scored 13 goals (2.6 per match). Dinamo Tirana, sitting 4th, average only 1.05 goals per away game and fail to score in 45% of away matches; in their last 5 games they have 2 wins and 10 goals. The quality of chance creation favors the hosts: Egnatia register 4.78 shots on target and 13.28 shots per home match with an 11% conversion rate and xG 1.6, while Dinamo average 3.5 shots on target, 12.1 shots, 9% conversion and xG 1.49. Defensively both sides are nominally similar (Egnatia concede 0.83 goals at home, Dinamo 0.8 away), however Dinamo’s away xG against is 1.23 (higher than their actual 0.8 conceded), suggesting their defense could start leaking more. Considering Egnatia’s better form (2.4 points average in the last 5 matches vs 1.4 for Dinamo), higher efficiency and superiority in chance creation, I give the hosts the greater probability.

Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate in the last 5 matches (Egnatia 60%, Dinamo 60%), which is a strong short-term signal that both sides are finding the net. Season BTTS is 50% for Egnatia and 35% for Dinamo (average 42.5%), versus a league BTTS level of 47%, so season-long data provides moderate support for this hypothesis. In the last 5 matches Egnatia scores an average of 2.6 goals and concedes 1.2, Dinamo scores 2.0 and concedes 1.4, which increases the likelihood of mutual scoring. Season xG is 1.72 for Egnatia and 1.49 for Dinamo, while recent xG per match is 1.39 and 1.43, meaning both sides are creating genuine chances. Although clean sheets this season are 33% (Egnatia) and 40% (Dinamo) and the league records 64% of matches with a clean sheet, the heavier weight is given to form over the last 5 fixtures; therefore I select BTTS - Yes (60% vs 40%).

I expect a total goal count of around 3.04 (Egnatia ~1.71, Dinamo ~1.33) based on averaged xG estimates and shot-based estimates. For the home side, attacking xG is 1.72 versus Dinamo’s conceded xG 1.23 (average ~1.48) and shot-based estimate 13.39*11%=1.47, while Dinamo has attacking xG 1.49 versus the home defense 1.22 (average ~1.36) and shot-based estimate 12.1*9%=1.09. Seasonally Egnatia has 78% of matches over 1.5 goals, Dinamo 60%, so Over 1.5 is a strong signal (I project 80% chance for Over 1.5 vs 20% Under). Although seasonal Over 2.5 is only 33%/35% for home/away, the last 5 rounds show 80% Over 2.5 for both teams and a combined xG ~3.04, therefore I assess the probability of Over 2.5 at ~58%. Over 3.5 is less certain (~36%) given seasonal values of 22%/10%, so the strongest and most probable pick is Over 1.5.

Egnatia has the advantage in attack and form: they average 1.5 goals per match versus Dinamo’s 1.05, have a higher xG (1.72 vs 1.49) and more on-target shots (4.67 vs 3.5), which favors the home side taking the lead at the break. At half-time Egnatia scores on average 0.67 goals, Dinamo 0.35; in the last 5 matches the hosts led at the break in 4 of 5 games (80%), so HT/FT at half-time favors Egnatia. Dinamo, however, shows strength in second halves (average 1.65 points after the break vs 1.5 for the hosts) and have 9 goals in minutes 76–90 compared to Egnatia’s 3, increasing the risk of late turnarounds. In light of these figures the most likely scenarios are 1/1 (41%), then X/1 (17%) and 1/X (12%), while Dinamo leading at half-time is unlikely (2/1: 1%, 2/X: 3%, 2/2: 6%). Therefore I recommend 1/1 as the strongest signal, with a caveat for a 9% chance of a draw after half-time (X/X) and a 5% chance of Dinamo winning after a draw at the break (X/2) due to their effectiveness in the closing stages.