Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Tirana: match statistics

Tirana are showing a clearly superior run of results: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, drawn once and remain unbeaten, collecting 13 points. Over the same period, Egnatia have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, yielding 8 points. The hosts have scored 17 goals in five matches, but have also conceded 10—an average of 2 goals per game—which highlights significant defensive vulnerability. Tirana have scored fewer, with 8 goals, but conceded only 3; their average of 0.6 goals conceded per match demonstrates far better defensive organization. The visitors’ edge in current consistency and their balance between attack and defense make them the favorites, although Egnatia’s attacking potential increases the likelihood of a draw.

The latest form clearly supports goals at both ends: Egnatia recorded BTTS in 5 of their last 5 matches, while Tirana did so in 3 of 5. The hosts scored an average of 3.4 goals during this period but also conceded 2.0, indicating a highly open profile in their games. Tirana averaged 1.6 goals per match, with an xG of 1.11, while Egnatia’s defense allowed opponents an xG of 1.40. The visitors are on a strong run of four wins and a draw, and despite Egnatia’s high scoring efficiency, they conceded 10 goals in five matches. Therefore, the most likely scenario is a Tirana goal alongside a goal from the hosts, supporting BTTS - Yes / Goal-Goal rather than BTTS - No.

The assessment is based on the latest matches, as the seasonal data in the comparison contain zero values. Egnatia scored 17 goals in their last five games, averaging 3.4 per match, but also conceded 10 goals, an average of 2.0. Tirana scored 8 goals during this period and conceded only 3; however, their average xG stands at 1.11, while Egnatia allowed opponents 1.40 xG. The hosts created an average of 1.52 xG, compared with 1.17 xG conceded by Tirana, supporting a forecast of approximately 2.70 total goals. Over 1.5 has the edge, as Egnatia’s attacking form and defensive vulnerability clearly increase the likelihood of at least two goals, while the Over 2.5 line remains considerably more balanced.

Egnatia has started its last five matches significantly stronger, scoring an average of 2.0 goals before half-time, compared with just 0.4 for Tirana. The hosts were not trailing at the break in any of these matches and were leading in 40% of them, increasing the likelihood of an Egnatia lead at half-time. After the interval, however, the outlook is more favorable for Tirana, which averages 1.2 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded, earning 2.2 points per match in second halves compared with Egnatia’s 1.2. Egnatia concedes as many as 1.4 goals per match after the break and has failed to keep a clean sheet in the second half in any of its last five appearances. Given Tirana’s run of 4 wins and 1 draw, alongside Egnatia’s 40% draw rate during this period, the most likely outcome is that the hosts lead at half-time before the match ends in a draw.