Eindhoven vs De Graafschap: match statistics

Eindhoven sit 13th and have won 3 of their 8 matches, while 18th-placed De Graafschap have recorded 2 wins in 8 games. At home, the hosts average 2 goals per match with a 16% shot conversion rate, while the visitors score 1 goal away from home at a 9% conversion rate. Both defenses give opponents chances: Eindhoven concede an average of 2 goals at home, while De Graafschap concede 2.25 away and have yet to keep a clean sheet on the road. The quality of the chances created is almost identical, with xG figures of 1.30 and 1.29 respectively, so the hosts’ edge is primarily down to their superior finishing so far and the visitors’ weaker defense. In their last 5 matches, Eindhoven have scored 8 goals and conceded 9, while De Graafschap have scored 5 and conceded 12, further strengthening the case for a home win.

Both teams have recorded BTTS in 75% of their matches, above the league average of 71%. Eindhoven score an average of 1.25 goals at home, while De Graafschap concede 2.25 goals away and have yet to keep a clean sheet on the road, strongly pointing to a home goal. The visitors average 1.0 goal away, but the hosts concede as many as 2.75 goals at home, with opponents posting an average xG of 1.98, so De Graafschap also have a genuine chance of scoring. Over their last 5 matches, the two sides conceded an average of 1.8 and 2.4 goals respectively, and BTTS landed in 80% and 60% of those games. The risk to the BTTS - Yes pick is that the visitors failed to score in 25% of their away matches; however, the combined data on both teams’ attacking output and defensive weaknesses more clearly supports goals at both ends.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been cleared in 75% of Eindhoven’s matches and 100% of De Graafschap’s matches. Both teams concede heavily—2.75 and 2.25 goals per match, respectively—which increases the likelihood of goals at both ends. In each team’s last five matches, at least three goals were scored in 80% of games, while the league average is 3.7 goals. The 3.55-goal forecast also supports higher lines, but Over 1.5 goals offers a clearer edge because it requires just two goals.

A draw at half-time is likely: both teams have finished the first half level in 50% of their matches so far, while Eindhoven have also failed to score before the break in 60% of their last five games. The hosts’ higher average xG, 1.72 compared with De Graafschap’s 1.29, and their average of 16.5 shots against their opponents’ 11.75 support their chances over the full match. The visitors concede an average of 2.25 goals per game and have scored just 0.2 goals per game after the break across their last five matches. Eindhoven, meanwhile, have averaged 1.2 second-half goals over the same period, providing grounds to back a home win after a closely contested first half. However, the X/1 pick remains only moderately confident, as the hosts have conceded an average of 1.75 goals after the break in their matches so far.