Emmen vs De Graafschap: match statistics

Emmen have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 15 goals in that period, while De Graafschap have failed to win any of their last five, recording 1 draw and 4 defeats. The hosts have won all three of their home matches, scoring an average of 3 goals per game, with a strong average xG of 1.96. De Graafschap score just 0.67 goals per away match, have kept no clean sheets and concede an average of 2.67 goals. Emmen also hold the edge in finishing quality: the hosts register 8 shots on target per game at a 17% conversion rate, compared with 3 shots on target and a 6% conversion rate for the visitors. Emmen’s defense is not flawless, as they concede an average of 1.33 goals at home; however, De Graafschap’s defensive problems should ultimately decide this match in favor of the hosts.

BTTS - Yes is strongly supported by the home side’s profile: Emmen have had both teams score in 100% of their matches, have kept no clean sheets, and have conceded an average of as many as 4.5 goals. De Graafschap have also failed to keep a clean sheet, while conceding an average of 3.4 goals in their last 5 matches, which clearly increases Emmen’s chances of scoring. The visitors average only 0.67 goals per match across the season, but their xG stands at 1.30, while Emmen’s defense allows opponents an xG of 2.10 and concedes an average of 4.5 goals. BTTS has landed in 60% of Emmen’s and 80% of De Graafschap’s last five matches, compared with a league average as high as 78%. The most likely scenario is therefore a goal for each team, although the visitors’ weaker finishing leaves some risk of a No Goal outcome for De Graafschap.

The match profile clearly favors goals: all of Emmen’s home games and De Graafschap’s away games so far have exceeded 1.5 goals. Emmen generate an average of 2.12 xG and 21.5 shots per match at home, while De Graafschap concede as many as 2.67 goals on average away from home. In their last five matches, the hosts scored 3.0 goals per game, while the visitors conceded 3.4, reinforcing the projection of at least two goals. Neither team has kept a clean sheet under the analyzed conditions, and Emmen’s matches finished Over 2.5 goals in 100% of cases. The safest option remains Over 1.5, as even with lower attacking efficiency from the visitors, the hosts’ attacking potential and the vulnerability of both defenses significantly reduce the likelihood of a match ending with one goal or fewer.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Emmen win, as both teams were level after 45 minutes in 60% of their last five matches. However, Emmen have shown a clearly greater advantage after the break: they score an average of 2.2 goals, compared with just 0.2 for De Graafschap, while the visitors concede an average of 2.0 goals in this period. Current form also favors the hosts, who have won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored an average of 3.0 goals, compared with no wins for De Graafschap and 3.4 goals conceded per match. Emmen also create more chances, averaging 2.12 xG, 21.5 shots and 5.5 shots on target per match, compared with the opponents’ 1.30 xG, 12 shots and 3.0 efforts on target. The risk remains high, as the hosts have conceded an average of 2.4 goals in their last five appearances, but the visitors’ weak second-half performances strengthen the X/1 option.