Erokspor vs Keçiörengücü: match statistics

Erokspor looks stronger on the season at home: at home they average 2.18 goals scored and concede 0.94 per match, have average xG 1.60 versus xG against 0.84 and register 5.18 shots on target per match. Keçiörengücü is clearly in better short-term form — in the last five matches they scored 12 goals (2.4 per match) and average 2.0 points per match, but away they score 1.71 goals and concede 1.53 on average. Seasonal expected metrics and defensive indicators favor the hosts: Erokspor has higher attacking xG (1.60 vs 1.31) and lower xG against (0.84 vs 1.35), and scores more goals at home (2.18 vs 1.71). Additional home advantages are greater possession (59% vs 46%), higher number of shots on target (5.18 vs 4.35) and a higher clean sheet percentage (29% vs 18%), although the visitors have a season record of 14-12-9 and can pick up points. Considering Erokspor’s strong home metrics and Keçiörengücü’s form over the last five matches, I predict a home win; I estimate probabilities of approximately 60% for Erokspor, 22% for a draw and 18% for the away win.

Erokspor scores 2.11 goals and concedes 0.78 at home on average, while Keçiörengücü averages 1.71 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per match. Season BTTS rates are 56% for the home side and 71% for the visitors versus a league average of 49%, indicating a season-long tendency for both teams to be involved in Goal/Goal games. In the last 5 matches there is a divergence: Erokspor has BTTS 80% (7 goals scored and 7 conceded in 5 games), while Keçiörengücü is only 20% (12 scored and 3 conceded), suggesting better defensive form from the visitors in the short term. xG implies expected goals around 1.48 for the home team (1.61 vs 1.35) and 1.21 for the away team (1.31 vs 1.11), translating to individual scoring probabilities of ~77% and ~70% and a multiplicative BTTS of about 54%. Considering the prevailing seasonal BTTS figures (56% and 71%), higher xG and shots on target, but accounting for the home side’s risk of clean sheets (44% seasonal clean sheet rate), I favor BTTS - Yes with a probability of 58% versus 42% for No.

The xG model forecasts 1.48 xG for Erokspor and 1.21 xG for Keçiörengücü, totaling 2.69 expected goals. With a Poisson distribution for λ=2.69, the probability of over 1.5 goals is around 75%, which aligns with seasonal Over 1.5 rates: 78% for the home side and 71% for the visitors. For the 2.5 line Poisson gives about 50%, but historical Over 2.5 shares are 67% (Erokspor) and 53% (Keçiörengücü), so I lean to a moderately higher assessment of ~55% for Over 2.5. The 3.5 line is less likely — Poisson ≈28%, and seasonal values 33%/47% only raise that slightly, hence an estimate of ~32% for Over 3.5 (Under 68%).

Erokspor has strong half-time statistics: they led at the break in 9 home matches (50%), averaging 1.22 goals by half-time while conceding only 0.28. Keçiörengücü are losing at the break in 35% of their away matches and score on average 0.94 goals in the first half, which increases the hosts’ chances of having the lead after 45 minutes. Over full matches Erokspor score an average of 2.11 goals at home while conceding 0.78, with a home xG of 1.61 versus the visitors’ 1.31 and 5.22 shots on target versus 4.35, so they possess superior quality and quantity of chances. Although Keçiörengücü show better recent form in the last 5 games (60% wins versus the hosts’ 40%), their away goals conceded average of 1.53 and xG against of 1.35 indicate the strongest signal from the data is a home HT/FT: lead at the break and home win to full-time.