Erokspor vs Pendikspor: match statistics

Erokspor are favorites: they sit 2nd in the table versus Pendikspor’s 6th, have scored 80 goals this season compared to 57, and at home average 2.11 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per match, while Pendikspor average 1.33 goals scored and 1.11 conceded on the road. The hosts create more clear-cut chances and convert them more efficiently — averaging 5 shots on target per home match versus 4.72 for the visitors and a higher shot conversion rate 16% vs 10%. xG confirms Erokspor’s advantage (1.57 xG per home match vs 1.49 xG for Pendikspor away), and superior possession 59% vs 51% supports control of the game. In the last 5 fixtures the hosts scored 7 goals and average 2.0 points per match (3 wins), while Pendikspor scored 8 goals and average 1.6 points per match (2 wins); the visitors more often finish matches without scoring (33% vs 11% for the hosts). Considering better efficiency, a clearer home goal differential (+22 home goal difference vs +4 for the visitors away) and control superiority, I predict a home win.

Statistical analysis shows Erokspor at home scores 1.74 goals and concedes only 0.63 per match (xG 1.57 scored, xG 0.90 conceded), while Pendikspor away scores 1.33 and concedes 1.11 (xG 1.49 scored, xG 1.30 conceded). Seasonal BTTS rates are 42% for hosts and 44% for visitors, both below the league average of 50%, but in the last 5 matches both teams have BTTS at 60%. Averaging xG for this fixture (approx. 1.44 for Erokspor and 1.20 for Pendikspor) a simple Poisson model gives about a 53% chance that both teams will score at least once. Additionally Erokspor have 80 goals scored this season and Pendikspor 57, and in the last 5 matches the home side scored 7 goals, the visitors 8, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides despite a 47% clean sheet rate for the hosts. As a result I tip BTTS - Yes with a probability of 56% versus 44% for No.

The xG-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Erokspor (attack xG average 1.57 and xG conceded vs Pendikspor 1.30) and 1.20 for Pendikspor (attack xG average 1.49 and xG conceded vs Erokspor 0.90), totaling 2.64 goals. With an expected total of 2.64, a Poisson distribution yields roughly a 74% probability of at least 2 goals in the match (Over 1.5), about 49% for 3+ goals (Over 2.5) and around 27% for 4+ goals (Over 3.5). Seasonal metrics support this view: Erokspor have 84% of matches with over 1.5 goals, Pendikspor 72%, and the league averages 2.91 goals per game. In the last 5 fixtures the home side averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, the away side averaged 1.6 scored and 1.0 conceded, and both teams scored in 60% of the last 5 matches combined, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. As a result the strongest and most reliable signal is Back Over 1.5, while Over 2.5 is roughly 50/50 and Over 3.5 looks weak (~27%).

The most likely HT/FT scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win (X/1) — I assign this outcome a 26% probability. The home side hold a clear seasonal advantage: they average 1.74 goals per match versus 1.33 for the visitors and concede only 0.63 goals compared to 1.11 for Pendikspor, which supports their victory at full-time. A draw at the break is, however, the most frequent state in the statistics — the home team are level at half-time in 58% of matches, the visitors in 56% (average ≈57%), while homes lead only 32% and visitors 17%. Additionally, xG indicates home control: xG for 1.57 versus 1.49 and xG against 0.90 versus 1.30 for the visitors, and in the second half Erokspor scores on average 1.11 goals against Pendikspor’s 0.83, so the home side have a greater chance of overturning a draw and winning. Therefore the probability distribution favors scenarios with a draw after 45 minutes turning into a home win (X/1 26%, 1/1 23%), whereas a visitors’ lead at half-time or their eventual win I assess as low — about 12% combined.