Erzgebirge Aue vs MSV Duisburg: match statistics
Erzgebirge Aue vs MSV Duisburg: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Erzgebirge Aue play MSV Duisburg in 3. Liga (Germany). The match date is 8 May 2026 at 19:00. Final score: 0:0.
Current form
Erzgebirge Aue: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match. MSV Duisburg: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Erzgebirge Aue scores 1.34 and concedes 1.84 goals per match. MSV Duisburg scores 1.74 and concedes 1.29. League average: 3.21 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Erzgebirge Aue 66%, MSV Duisburg 66%. Over 2.5: Erzgebirge Aue 66%, MSV Duisburg 63%. League level: BTTS 64%, Over 2.5 64%.
xG, shots and style
MSV Duisburg has higher xG: 1.52 vs 1.43. Erzgebirge Aue: 11.7 shots per match, MSV Duisburg: 12.4.
Match halves
Erzgebirge Aue: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.79. MSV Duisburg: half-time lead 32%, second-half goals 1.03.
Goals by minute
Erzgebirge Aue: 31-45+ (12 goals). MSV Duisburg: 76-90+ (17 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
3. Liga: 3.21 goals per match, BTTS 64%, Over 2.5 64%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Match description
I predict an away win (2): MSV Duisburg sit 3rd in the table with 19 wins this season versus Erzgebirge Aue’s 6 wins, currently 19th. In their last 5 league matches Duisburg have won 4/5, averaging 2.4 points per game, while Aue have 2 wins and 3 draws (1.8 points per game), which indicates a clear form advantage for the visitors. Offensively Aue at home average 1.39 goals scored and xG 1.55, while Duisburg away average 1.44 goals and xG 1.37; although Aue attempt more shots (12.83 vs 11.56) and more shots on target (4.56 vs 4.0), their conversion rate is 11% versus 13% for the visitors. Defensively the visitors fare better: Aue concede 1.78 goals at home with xG against 1.73, whereas Duisburg away concede 1.67 and have xG against 1.46, meaning the hosts allow higher-quality chances more often. Considering 19 wins, better recent form in the last 5 matches and a slightly stronger defense with similar offensive efficiency, I estimate Duisburg’s win probability at 55%, draw 25% and home win 20%.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Erzgebirge Aue | MSV Duisburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Erzgebirge Aue is 13% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Erzgebirge Aue · 1.6 pts / match - MSV Duisburg
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
MSV Duisburg is 30% better for: goals scored per match.
1.34 goals / match - Erzgebirge Aue · 1.74 goals / match - MSV Duisburg
MSV Duisburg is 43% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.84 goals / match - Erzgebirge Aue · 1.29 goals / match - MSV Duisburg
Erzgebirge Aue scores in 74% of matches (28 of 38 matches), while MSV Duisburg keeps a clean sheet in 29% (11 of 38 matches).
MSV Duisburg scores in 79% of matches (30 of 38 matches), while Erzgebirge Aue keeps a clean sheet in 21% (8 of 38 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Erzgebirge Aue
Over / Under — MSV Duisburg
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
MSV Duisburg is 39% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Erzgebirge Aue · 1.39 pts / match - MSV Duisburg
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Erzgebirge Aue - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 18%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
MSV Duisburg - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 32% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +7 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (12 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (16). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (17 goli). Concedes most in 31-45 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Erzgebirge Aue
MSV Duisburg
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (3. Liga).
Teams vs league
| Erzgebirge Aue | Liga | MSV Duisburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 3.18 | 3.21 | ▼ 3.03 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 66% | 64% | ▲ 66% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 66% | 64% | • 63% |
| Clean sheets | • 21% | 21% | ▲ 29% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 82% | 77% | ▼ 68% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 79% | 83% | ▼ 74% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Erzgebirge Aue 0 - 1 - 0 MSV Duisburg. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Erzgebirge Aue vs MSV Duisburg?
The 3. Liga match finished Erzgebirge Aue 0:0 MSV Duisburg. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Erzgebirge Aue vs MSV Duisburg?
Erzgebirge Aue score 1.34 goals per game on average and MSV Duisburg 1.74. The 3. Liga average is 3.21 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 66% of Erzgebirge Aue's matches and 66% of MSV Duisburg's.
What form are Erzgebirge Aue and MSV Duisburg in?
Over the last 5 games Erzgebirge Aue have a 2-3-0 record (1.80 points per game) and MSV Duisburg 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Erzgebirge Aue vs MSV Duisburg?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.