Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates a very evenly matched encounter between two teams from the bottom of the table. Estrela Amadora, in 14th place, is in poor form with just 0.4 points per game over their last five matches, having failed to win any of them. Casa Pia in 15th shows slightly better form with 1.2 points per game, but their away record remains problematic with 54% defeats and only 23% wins. The hosts have a possession advantage (53% vs 42%) and a slightly better xG in home matches (1.36 vs 0.99 for the visitors away), yet their defense is as leaky as their opponent's. Both teams are characterized by similar goal efficiency and a high percentage of goals conceded, which suggests a draw scenario. Considering the poor form of both sides and their league position, I expect a cautious, tactical match ending in a share of the points.
Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Estrela Amadora play Casa Pia in Liga NOS (Portugal). The match date is 20 March 2026 at 21:15. Final score: 4:0.
Current form
Estrela Amadora: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. Casa Pia: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Estrela Amadora scores 1.12 and concedes 1.65 goals per match. Casa Pia scores 0.91 and concedes 1.68. League average: 2.68 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Estrela Amadora 47%, Casa Pia 47%. Over 2.5: Estrela Amadora 53%, Casa Pia 44%. League level: BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Estrela Amadora has higher xG: 1.15 vs 1.00. Estrela Amadora: 10.8 shots per match, Casa Pia: 8.8.
Match halves
Estrela Amadora: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.56. Casa Pia: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 0.44.
Goals by minute
Estrela Amadora: 61-75 (9 goals). Casa Pia: 31-45+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga Portugal: 2.68 goals per match, BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 1-0-0. Average goals 8.00, BTTS 100%.
Match description
Statistical analysis indicates a very evenly matched encounter between two teams from the bottom of the table. Estrela Amadora, in 14th place, is in poor form with just 0.4 points per game over their last five matches, having failed to win any of them. Casa Pia in 15th shows slightly better form with 1.2 points per game, but their away record remains problematic with 54% defeats and only 23% wins. The hosts have a possession advantage (53% vs 42%) and a slightly better xG in home matches (1.36 vs 0.99 for the visitors away), yet their defense is as leaky as their opponent's. Both teams are characterized by similar goal efficiency and a high percentage of goals conceded, which suggests a draw scenario. Considering the poor form of both sides and their league position, I expect a cautious, tactical match ending in a share of the points.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Estrela Amadora | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Casa Pia is 100% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / match - Estrela Amadora · 0.8 pts / match - Casa Pia
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Estrela Amadora is 23% better for: goals scored per match.
1.12 goals / match - Estrela Amadora · 0.91 goals / match - Casa Pia
Estrela Amadora scores in 56% of matches (19 of 34 matches), while Casa Pia keeps a clean sheet in 21% (7 of 34 matches).
Casa Pia scores in 56% of matches (19 of 34 matches), while Estrela Amadora keeps a clean sheet in 24% (8 of 34 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Estrela Amadora
Over / Under — Casa Pia
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Casa Pia is 18% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Estrela Amadora · 1.18 pts / match - Casa Pia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Estrela Amadora - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 18%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Casa Pia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 18%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (9 goli). Concedes most in 46-60 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goli). Concedes most in 31-45 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Estrela Amadora
Casa Pia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga Portugal).
Teams vs league
| Estrela Amadora | Liga | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.76 | 2.68 | • 2.59 |
| Both teams scored | • 47% | 48% | • 47% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 53% | 54% | ▼ 44% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 24% | 29% | ▼ 21% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 71% | 69% | • 68% |
| Goal after half-time | • 79% | 80% | ▼ 76% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Estrela Amadora 1 - 0 - 0 Casa Pia. Average goals 8.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia?
The Liga NOS match finished Estrela Amadora 4:0 Casa Pia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia?
Estrela Amadora score 1.12 goals per game on average and Casa Pia 0.91. The Liga NOS average is 2.68 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 47% of Estrela Amadora's matches and 47% of Casa Pia's.
What form are Estrela Amadora and Casa Pia in?
Over the last 5 games Estrela Amadora have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and Casa Pia 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.