Everton vs Audax Italiano: match statistics

Everton have a clear attacking edge at home: they average 1.60 xG and 4.89 shots on target per match, while Audax Italiano record 1.11 xG and 2.88 shots on target away from home. The hosts score an average of 1.0 goals in front of their own supporters, compared with just 0.5 for the visitors, while Audax have failed to score in 63% of their away matches. Everton concede 1.33 goals per home game, but their opponents lose 63% of their away fixtures and have an away goal difference of -8. The visitors’ recent results are respectable, having won 3 of their last 5 matches, but Everton have scored 11 goals during this period and lost only once. The superior quality of chances created, combined with Audax’s poor away attacking efficiency, supports a moderately likely home win.

Everton have significantly greater attacking potential at home, averaging 1.8 goals from 3.7 shots on target per match, while Audax score just 0.5 goals away from home. Recent form nevertheless points towards both teams scoring: BTTS occurred in 80% of Everton’s and 60% of Audax’s last five matches, with the teams scoring 2.2 and 1.2 goals respectively. Everton conceded an average of 1.6 goals during this period, while Audax created chances worth 1.21 xG, giving the visitors a realistic chance of scoring. On the other hand, Audax’s season-long BTTS rate is only 25%, and the visitors failed to score in as many as 63% of their matches. Despite this, Audax’s recent attacking improvement and Everton’s defense, which has kept a clean sheet in only 30% of matches, slightly tip the prediction towards BTTS - Yes.

Everton scores an average of 1.8 goals per match, increasing this figure to 2.2 across their last five fixtures, with a very high xG of 2.19. Audax Italiano has scored just 0.5 goals per match over the course of the season, but their recent run has produced 1.2 goals per game, while Everton conceded an average of 1.6 goals during this period. The 1.5-goal line was surpassed in 80% of the home team’s matches and 50% of the away team’s fixtures, while both teams recorded Over 2.5 goals in 60% of their last five appearances. Everton’s attacking advantage, supported by an average of 3.7 shots on target per match compared with 2.88 for their opponents, should ensure at least two goals in the game. Over 1.5 is the safest choice, as it combines the hosts’ strong attacking form with the increased goalscoring potential of both teams in their current form.

The strongest scenario points to a draw at half-time, as Everton were level at the break in 50% of their matches, compared with 38% for Audax Italiano. However, the home side has a clearly greater potential to decide the match after the interval: they score an average of 0.8 goals in the second half, while the visitors average just 0.13, and Audax concede as many as 0.88 goals per match during this period. Across the season, Everton average 1.8 goals compared with Audax’s mere 0.5, while their respective win rates stand at 40% and 13%. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in their shot-conversion rates, at 15% versus 5% for the visitors. Therefore, following an evenly matched opening, an Everton victory is the most likely outcome, corresponding to the HT/FT pick X/1.