Everton vs Liverpool: match statistics

Everton has a clear advantage in form and defensively: in the last 5 matches they scored 10 goals (avg. 2.0 per match) and won 3 games, while Liverpool scored only 3 goals in their last 5 (0.6 per match) and won 1. The home side concedes on average 1.19 goals per match and have conceded 6 goals in their last five, whereas Liverpool away concedes 1.56 on average and have shipped 10 goals in their last 5. In terms of quality of chances xG is similar (Everton 1.48 xG at home vs 1.56 xG for Liverpool away), but Everton registers more shots on target (4.25 vs 3.81) and has a higher clean sheet rate at home (38% vs 31%). Liverpool controls possession more (60% possession vs 48%), yet that dominance has not recently translated into goals and points. Considering Everton’s 2 points per match average in their last 5 vs Liverpool’s 0.6, and the home side’s better defensive stability, I give Everton the higher probability (55%), 25% for a draw and 20% for a Liverpool win.

The seasonal BTTS rate for Everton and Liverpool is 63% each, vs a league average of 55%, providing a strong seasonal signal for both teams to score. However, there is a clear decline in the last 5 matches: Everton has BTTS 40%, Liverpool 20% (30% average), and Liverpool has scored only 3 goals in those five games (0.6 avg), which weakens the both-teams-to-score forecast. On the other hand, xG and goal figures suggest Everton will create plenty of chances — Everton home xG 1.96 vs xG against Liverpool 1.33, and Everton scored 10 goals in the last 5 (2.0 avg) — while Liverpool’s season xG is 1.56 with 52 goals this season, so they retain the ability to respond. Considering the strong seasonal signal of 63% and supporting xG (1.96 vs 1.56) combined with Liverpool’s weakened recent form, I favor the "BTTS - Yes" scenario at 60% vs 40% for "No Goal."

Projected xG and expected goals are 1.65 for Everton and 1.41 for Liverpool, totaling 3.06. Season-long metrics show Everton had 88% of matches with over 1.5 goals, Liverpool 75%; in 63% of fixtures both teams scored, and in 94% of matches at least one goal was scored, which strongly favors Over 1.5. Last 5 matches form: Everton scored 10 goals (avg. 2.0), Liverpool only 3 goals (0.6), while Liverpool conceded 10 goals in that period (avg. 2.0), increasing the likelihood of a higher-scoring game. Combining Everton’s xG 1.96 and Liverpool’s xG 1.56 with xG against (Liverpool 1.33, Everton 1.26) translates to an estimated ~59% for Over 2.5 and 37% for Over 3.5. For these reasons I recommend an Over bet at the 1.5 line as the strongest signal (82% edge).

Everton holds a clear advantage in the first half: they led at the break in 10 matches (63%) while Liverpool did so in only 1 match (6%). Everton’s average first-half goals are 1.00 versus 0.25 for the visitors, with only 0.19 conceded by halftime. Additionally, Everton’s offensive numbers favor maintaining a lead — xG 1.96 versus Liverpool’s 1.56, on average 17.88 shots vs 13.69 and 5.25 shots on target vs 3.81 — which supports holding the halftime lead. The hosts also have a higher home points average (1.94 vs 1.31) and a higher win rate (56% vs 38%), so the scenario of Everton leading at the break and winning (1/1) is the strongest. However, Liverpool records a higher average of goals after the break (AVG_2hg_away 2.13 vs 1.69 for Everton), which increases the probability of a comeback to level the score after halftime and justifies giving significant weight to the 1/X (Half-Time/Full-Time) alternative.