Excelsior vs PSV: match statistics

Excelsior come into the match as league leaders after a 4:0 win in their only league fixture so far, while PSV drew their match 2:2 and sit 10th. In their last five appearances, the hosts have scored an impressive 17 goals—an average of 3.4 per match—while conceding just 5. PSV are also capable of finding the net, having scored 13 times during this period, but their defense has conceded as many as 12 goals, averaging 2.4 per game. Excelsior’s recent run consists of 4 wins and 1 draw, yielding an average of 2.6 points per match, whereas the visitors have won only 2 of their last 5 games and suffered 2 defeats. The clearly superior goal difference and more stable defense favor a home win, although PSV’s attacking threat gives them a realistic chance of scoring.

The strongest signal in favor of both teams scoring is the identical 60% BTTS rate in Excelsior’s and PSV’s last 5 matches. Excelsior averaged 3.4 goals per match during this period, while PSV averaged 2.6, indicating high quality in both attacks. However, PSV conceded as many as 2.4 goals per game in their last five appearances, whereas Excelsior allowed opponents 1.0 goal, giving the home side particularly strong grounds to score. The xG figures stand at 1.71 for Excelsior and 1.47 for PSV, meaning both teams regularly create chances worth at least one goal. Although the league-wide BTTS average is only 44%, current finishing form and the number of goals conceded—especially by PSV—more clearly support the BTTS - Yes scenario.

Data from the last five matches indicates very high scoring potential: Excelsior averaged 3.4 goals, while PSV averaged 2.6. PSV conceded as many as 2.4 goals per match during this period, whereas Excelsior conceded only 1.0, supporting a scenario with at least two goals. The 2.5 line was surpassed in 80% of Excelsior’s last matches and in 100% of PSV’s matches, clearly above the league average of 56%. At the same time, the combined average xG from the last five appearances of both teams stands at 3.89, making Over 1.5 the safest choice with a very high probability.

Excelsior are in clearly better form: across their last five matches, they averaged 3.4 goals scored, conceded just 1.0, and won 80% of their games, while PSV suffered defeat in 40% of their outings. The hosts held a lead at the break in 60% of those matches, scoring an average of 1.6 goals before half-time, whereas PSV were behind at half-time in 50% of their games and scored just 0.5 goals during that period. After the break, Excelsior remain the stronger side, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, while PSV concede as many as 1.75 goals per match in the second half. In addition, PSV allowed their opponents an average of 2.4 goals across their last five fixtures, further supporting the HT/FT scenario of Excelsior leading at half-time and maintaining the win through to the final whistle.