FAS vs INCA-Aruba: match statistics

FAS are the favorites: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches and remain unbeaten, scoring 11 goals in that run. They win 75% of their home games and average 2 goals, while INCA-Aruba lose 67% of their away matches and concede an average of 2 goals in them. The hosts also create more chances: their home xG is 1.82 compared with the visitors’ away xG of 1.11, and they average 6 shots on target against 2.83. FAS concede an average of 0.75 goals at home, while INCA-Aruba score just 0.67 goals per away game and fail to score in 33% of those matches. The visitors have improved recently, winning 3 of their last 5 matches, but FAS’s advantage at both ends of the pitch points to a home win.

Both teams scored in 50% of their matches this season, and that figure has risen to 60% for each side across their last five games, so BTTS - Yes cannot be ruled out. However, the stronger signal points towards BTTS - No, which means at least one team is expected not to score—not necessarily a 0-0 draw. The visitors average just 0.67 goals and 2.83 shots on target per match, while the hosts average 0.83 goals and 5 shots on target. INCA-Aruba have failed to score in 33% of their matches, and FAS have kept a clean sheet in 33%, increasing the risk of the visitors ending the game without a goal. FAS’s recent defensive form also lends cautious support to this outcome, with an average of 0.8 goals conceded across their last five matches, although the visitors’ average of 1.2 goals scored over that period limits confidence in the prediction.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been cleared in 67% of FAS matches and 83% of INCA-Aruba matches. The hosts have the edge in chance creation, averaging 1.51 xG compared with their opponents’ 1.11, while the visitors concede an average of 2.0 goals per match. FAS have averaged 2.2 goals across their last five matches, further supporting a scenario with at least two goals. Higher lines are less convincing: Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of the hosts’ matches and 33% of the visitors’ matches, while Over 3.5 goals has landed in 33% of matches for both sides.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a FAS win: across the 6 home matches considered, the hosts have not led at the break and have been level on 3 occasions. Their recent form, however, points to a win—they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while INCA-Aruba have lost 67% of the matches included in the season statistics. FAS average 5 shots on target per match compared with the visitors’ 2.83, and their xG stands at 1.51 versus their opponents’ 1.11, indicating greater attacking potential. A second-half decision is all the more likely given that FAS average 0.83 goals after the break, while INCA-Aruba concede 1.5. The case for a half-time draw is not clear-cut, as FAS led at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, making a scenario in which the hosts lead from half-time a significant alternative.