Fatih Karagümrük vs Bursaspor: match statistics

Bursaspor come into this match on the back of five consecutive wins, scoring 14 goals and conceding just 1, while Fatih Karagümrük have won 4 of their last 5 matches with a 6:4 goal difference. The visitors are particularly solid away from home: they have won 100% of such fixtures, average 2 goals scored and have yet to concede, keeping a clean sheet in every match. Their defense allows opponents just 0.75 xG, significantly lower than the hosts’ 1.78. The teams are closely matched in attack, generating an average of 1.78 xG for Bursaspor and 1.81 for Fatih Karagümrük, but the visitors tend to control possession more often, recording 58% compared with 42%. The hosts are a threat at home, but Bursaspor’s advantage in current form and defensive organization points to a home victory.

The BTTS - No scenario is strongly supported by the data: both teams have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their matches so far this season, while their BTTS - Yes rates stand at 0% each. Bursaspor are particularly strong defensively, having conceded just 1 goal in their last five matches—an average of 0.2 per game—with an xG against of 0.76. Fatih Karagümrük create few chances, averaging 0.71 xG, just 5 shots and 2 shots on target per match, which limits their chances of breaking down this defense. The visitors are highly effective in attack, scoring an average of 2.8 goals across their last five appearances; however, the low BTTS rates from their last five matches—40% for the hosts and 20% for the visitors—primarily suggest a risk that one side will fail to score.

Bursaspor clearly possesses greater attacking potential, averaging 1.78 xG and 7 shots on target per match, compared with Fatih Karagümrük’s 0.71 xG and 2 shots on target. However, the visitors are also very solid defensively, having conceded just 1 goal in their last 5 matches, while their average xG conceded stands at 0.76. Fatih Karagümrük averaged 1.2 goals scored across their last five matches, but against a defense of this quality, their projected goal tally remains limited to around 0.72. Although Bursaspor scored 2.8 goals per match during this period, matches involving either team exceeded 2.5 goals in only 40% of cases. The projection of 2.25 goals, combined with the visitors’ strong defensive organization, provides the strongest signal for Under 3.5 goals.

The strongest signal points to Bursaspor leading at the break and maintaining their advantage until the final whistle: the visitors were ahead at half-time in 100% of their last five matches, while Fatih Karagümrük led in only 20%. Bursaspor averaged 1.4 goals before the break and conceded none in that period; the hosts scored just 0.2 goals and conceded 0.4. The visitors’ superiority is also evident in chance creation, with an average xG of 1.78 compared with the hosts’ 0.71, while the average number of shots on target stands at 7 to 2. In their last five matches, Bursaspor won all five, scoring an average of 2.8 goals and conceding only 0.2, whereas Karagümrük recorded four wins and one defeat, averaging 1.2 goals scored. The hosts can improve after the break, averaging 1.0 goal in the second half, but Bursaspor also score 1.4 goals after half-time, further supporting the 2/2 HT/FT outcome.