FC Cetatea Suceava vs Concordia Chiajna: match statistics

FC Cetatea Suceava holds a clear edge over the last five matches: form 'wwlww' with 4 wins and 12 goals, while Concordia Chiajna is 'dwwld' with 2 wins and 7 goals. The hosts have scored an average of 2.4 goals per match (12 in 5) versus 1.4 for the visitors (7 in 5), and both teams have conceded 5 goals in that period (1.0 per match). Goal difference over the last 5 fixtures is +7 for Cetatea versus +2 for Concordia, indicating the hosts’ superiority in quality of chances and offensive efficiency. Points per game: the hosts record 2.4 points per match in the last five, the visitors 1.6, so Cetatea also outperforms in points yield and result consistency. Based on this, I predict a home win; I estimate probabilities of approximately 65% for the home side, 20% for a draw and 15% for the visitors.

Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate in their last 5 matches (3/5), providing a strong baseline signal that goals frequently come from both sides. The home side scored 12 goals in the last 5 matches (2.4 per game) and conceded 5 (1.0/game), while Concordia scored 7 goals (1.4/game) and also conceded 5 (1.0/game), so both teams both score and concede. Additionally, the away team has an average xG of 1.66 with xG against 1.03, confirming they create roughly 1.7 quality chances per match; the home team has 4 wins in 5, and the away side has 2 wins and 2 draws, indicating good offensive form. Considering these figures — 60% mutual BTTS, 2.4 vs 1.4 average goals and identical 1.0 conceded per match — the Both Teams To Score scenario is clearly more likely, so I assess 72% for BTTS - Yes and 28% for No Goal.

In the last 5 matches the home team scored 12 goals (avg. 2.4 per game) and conceded 5 (1.0), while the away team scored 7 goals (avg. 1.4) and also conceded 5 (1.0). Based on combining goals scored and conceded averages I estimate 1.70 goals for the home side and 1.20 for the visitors, totaling 2.90 goals. The home side had Over 2.5 goals in 80% of their last 5 matches, the away side in 40%, and both teams scored in 60% of fixtures (BTTS 60%), which increases the likelihood of multiple goals. The strongest signal is therefore Over 1.5 (high probability ~94%), Over 2.5 also has an edge (~68%), while Over 3.5 is much less certain (~29%).

FC Cetatea Suceava led at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches (60%), while Concordia were leading at the break in only 1 of 5 (20%), indicating a clear home advantage after the first 45 minutes. In the last 5 fixtures the hosts won 4 of 5 (80%) and averaged 2.4 goals per game versus 1.4 for the visitors, so the attacking edge lies with Cetatea. At half-time the hosts averaged 0.8 goals and the visitors 0.4, while in second halves the hosts added an average of 1.6 goals versus 1.0 for Concordia, increasing the likelihood of maintaining or extending a lead after the break. Additionally, the hosts have a +3 goal difference at half-time across the last 5 matches and an average points per game of 2.4 versus 1.6 for the visitors, which reinforces the home-win scenario. Therefore the most likely outcome is the home team leading at half-time and winning at full-time (1/1) — I assign this a 42% probability, while alternatives (e.g. 1/X or X/1) carry substantially lower probabilities.