FC Cincinnati vs New York City: match statistics

FC Cincinnati have a clear home advantage, winning 67% of their matches and averaging 3.11 goals per game, while New York City score just 1.00 goal per away match. The hosts create significantly more danger, averaging 15.78 shots and 6.44 shots on target, compared with the visitors’ 8.75 shots and 3.63 shots on target. The difference is also reflected in the quality of chances, with Cincinnati averaging 1.72 xG at home, while NYC manage just 1.12 away from home; the visitors have failed to score in 25% of their away matches. However, the hosts’ defense is vulnerable to mistakes, conceding 2.11 goals per home match, giving New York City a realistic chance to score. Cincinnati’s superior recent form, with 3 wins and 11 goals in their last five matches, nevertheless points to a home victory.

BTTS - Yes is clearly supported by the season results: FC Cincinnati have landed this outcome in 70% of their matches, while New York City have done so in 63%, compared with the league average of 61%. In their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in as many as 80% of cases, averaging 2.2 goals scored by the hosts and 1.6 by the visitors. Cincinnati conceded 1.4 goals per match during this period, while New York City conceded 1.2, with against-xG figures of 1.61 and 1.49 respectively, indicating regularly allowed goal-scoring opportunities. The hosts boast a strong attack, averaging 2.3 goals and 5.9 shots on target per match, while the visitors should be able to exploit Cincinnati’s defense, which has kept a clean sheet in only 20% of matches. The main risk to this pick is New York City’s lower season-long attacking output of 1.0 goals per match; however, their current scoring form and both sides’ weak clean-sheet records support BTTS.

FC Cincinnati score an average of 2.3 goals per match, while New York City concede 1.13 goals, with the hosts creating chances worth an average of 1.56 xG. The visitors have lower attacking potential at 1.12 xG, but Cincinnati’s defense allows opponents 1.32 xG, raising their projected total to around 1.25 goals. In their last five matches, both teams recorded games with at least three goals in 80% and 60% of cases, respectively, while both sides have regularly scored and conceded, achieving 80% of matches with goals for both teams. The Over 1.5 goals line also has the strongest support in the season data: it has been surpassed in 100% of Cincinnati’s matches and 75% of New York City’s. The projected total of 2.83 goals is significantly above the 1.5 threshold, making the over on this line the most likely selection.

FC Cincinnati have a clear first-half advantage: they led at the break in 50% of their matches, averaging 1.4 goals and collecting 1.9 points per match before half-time. New York City were trailing after 45 minutes in as many as 50% of their games, while their average attacking output in this phase is only 0.5 goals, reinforcing the scenario of a home lead. Cincinnati’s advantage should persist after the break, as they average 5.9 shots on target compared with their opponents’ 3.63, while their xG stands at 1.56 versus 1.12 for the visitors. The hosts score an average of 2.3 goals per match, whereas NYC average 1.0, making a Cincinnati lead at half-time followed by a full-time win the most likely outcome: 1/1.