Fernando de la Mora vs Benjamin Aceval: match statistics

Benjamin Aceval sit 2nd, while Fernando de la Mora are only 12th, and the visitors’ overall season record stands at 10 wins and just 3 defeats, compared with 5 wins and 8 losses for the hosts. Away from home, Benjamin Aceval average 1.89 goals per match, more than twice Fernando de la Mora’s home average (0.89), and they also fail to score far less frequently: in 11% of matches compared with 33%. The visitors are clearly more clinical, converting 17% of their shots into goals versus 7% for the hosts, while also averaging 4.33 shots on target per match compared with 3.33. Recent form over the last five matchdays also slightly favors Benjamin Aceval, who have averaged 1.6 points per match, compared with 1.2 for their opponents. A draw remains a realistic outcome, as Fernando de la Mora have drawn 44% of their home matches; however, the visitors’ attacking edge and superior season record point to an away win.

The BTTS signal is moderately positive: in their last five matches, both teams recorded this scenario 60% of the time, compared with the league average of 56%. Benjamin Aceval average 1.89 goals per match, while Fernando de la Mora have conceded 1.40 goals per game over their last five appearances. The hosts also have solid grounds to score, with an average xG of 1.47, while their opponents allow 1.52 xG to opposing teams. However, the pick is not decisive, as Fernando de la Mora keep a clean sheet in 44% of matches and their seasonal BTTS rate stands at just 44%. Despite this defensive counterweight, the visitors’ attacking consistency and the current form of both teams point slightly more strongly towards goals at both ends.

The match profile points to a moderate number of goals: the home side averages 1.33 goals scored, while the visitors average 1.89, but Fernando de la Mora concedes just 0.67 goals per match. In their last five appearances, both teams scored 1.2 goals per game, with average xG figures of 1.23 and 1.32 respectively, supporting a forecast of around 2.40 total goals. The 3.5 line was not exceeded in 89% of the home side’s matches and 78% of the visitors’ games, while Over 3.5 goals landed in only 11% and 22% of those matches respectively. The hosts kept a clean sheet in 44% of their matches, while their opponents failed to score in 22%, further reducing the risk of an open, four-goal scenario. Under 3.5 is therefore the strongest pick, as the season data and current form more clearly support a range of 0 to 3 goals than a high-scoring game.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Fernando de la Mora were level at the break in 63% of their matches, while the hosts’ first-half average is just 0.88 goals. Benjamin Aceval often start slowly: they were trailing at half-time in 56% of matches, but after the interval they won as many as 89% of second halves and averaged 1.33 goals in them. The visitors are also more effective over the season as a whole, scoring an average of 1.89 goals compared with the hosts’ 1.33, with a shot conversion rate of 17% versus 11%. Their superior recent form is further supported by the last five matches, yielding 1.6 points per game compared with Fernando de la Mora’s 1.2. However, the hosts’ solid defense, which has kept a clean sheet in 44% of matches, reduces the likelihood of the visitors taking an early lead. Therefore, the X/2 scenario has an edge over Benjamin Aceval leading already at half-time.