Feyenoord vs AZ: match statistics

Feyenoord are the clear favorites: they have scored 67 goals this season, average 2.38 goals per home match and have won 69% of home fixtures, whereas AZ have 54 goals this season, average 1.13 goals away and win 38% of away matches. Quality of chances favors the hosts: Feyenoord’s home xG is 2.14 versus AZ’s away xG of 1.69, average shots 18.94 vs 15.5 and shots on target 7.25 vs 5.63, with a conversion rate of 13% vs 7%. Defensively the hosts concede 1.38 goals at home while AZ concede 1.5 on the road; season totals are 43 goals conceded for Feyenoord vs 47 for AZ, and average xG against 1.15 vs 1.48, indicating more dangerous chances created against the visitors. Recent form is level on points (both averaging 1.8 points in the last five matches, with 2 wins and 3 draws each), but AZ have scored 12 goals in their last 5 matches compared to Feyenoord’s 7, giving the visitors more attacking momentum. Considering home advantage, superior efficiency (13% vs 7%) and the fact that Feyenoord have a 0% rate of home matches without scoring, I predict a home win; I assess the probabilities as 62% for Feyenoord, 21% for a draw and 17% for AZ.

I project BTTS - Yes at 78% vs 22% for No Goal, as the data signals clearly favor goals from both sides. Feyenoord has a seasonal BTTS rate of 75% and 80% in the last 5 matches, scoring on average 2.25 goals per game (67 goals this season) with an average xG of 1.81 and conceding 1.44. AZ has a seasonal BTTS of 50% and 60% in the last 5 fixtures, scoring 12 goals in their last five matches (2.4 avg) with a season xG of 1.69 and conceding 1.5 on average. The Eredivisie records BTTS at 63% and an average of 3.17 goals per game, while Feyenoord have over 2.5 in 75% of matches and a home combination of over 2.5 + BTTS in 63% of cases, which increases the likelihood of mutual scoring. Additionally, xG conceded of 1.27 for Feyenoord and 1.48 for AZ, and average shots on target 6.13 vs 5.63, indicate both teams create scoring opportunities, reinforcing the BTTS scenario.

The xG model and offensive metrics indicate a high goal volume: attacking xG is 1.81 for Feyenoord and 1.69 for AZ, while xG conceded is 1.27 for Feyenoord and 1.48 for AZ, yielding expected goals of 1.65 for Feyenoord and 1.48 for AZ (total 3.13). Based on a Poisson distribution with λ=3.13 I estimate probability of Over 1.5 goals at ~82%, Over 2.5 at ≈60% and Over 3.5 at ≈38%. Seasonal rates confirm this direction: Feyenoord have 94% of home matches Over 1.5 and 75% Over 2.5, AZ have 69% and 56% respectively, and the league average is 3.17 goals per game. Additionally Feyenoord average 2.25 goals at home and have a shot conversion rate of 14% versus 7% for AZ, while both-teams-to-score rates are 75% (Feyenoord) and 50% (AZ), which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Therefore the strongest and most reliable signal is Over 1.5 (over), due to the high probability (~82%) and consistency across xG, shot conversion and seasonal over percentages.

Feyenoord holds a significant advantage in the first half: they led at the break in 9 of 16 matches (56%), scoring an average of 1.38 first-half goals while conceding 0.63, whereas AZ scores only 0.44 first-half goals and concedes 0.88. The home side averages 2.25 goals per match versus AZ’s 1.13 and win at home in 50% of matches compared to 38% away wins, which suggests HT leads often convert into FT victories. Additionally, Feyenoord has higher xG (1.81 vs 1.69) and twice the shot conversion rate (14% vs 7%), increasing the likelihood of maintaining the lead. In light of these specific figures, the strongest signal is the scenario of the home side leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1).