Feyenoord vs AZ: match statistics

AZ have won all 3 of their away matches so far, while Feyenoord have recorded 1 win and 2 draws at home, giving the visitors a slight edge in this matchup. However, the hosts create more chances: they average 27.67 shots per home match compared with AZ’s 21.67 away from home, and their xG stands at 2.92 versus their opponents’ 2.61. Both teams average 3 goals in these conditions, although AZ are more clinical in front of goal, converting 14% of their shots compared with Feyenoord’s 11%. The visitors also have a slight defensive edge in terms of goals conceded: they allow an average of 1 goal away from home, while the hosts concede 1.33 at home. With both teams sharing the same record over their last 5 matches—3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat—AZ’s perfect away record tips the prediction in their favor, but Feyenoord’s superior chance creation keeps the hosts’ chances of success high.

Both teams have strong attacks: Feyenoord average 2.25 goals at home, while AZ average 3.00 away, with xG figures of 2.08 and 2.61 respectively. Neither team has yet failed to score in these conditions, which points towards goals at both ends. In their last five matches, BTTS landed in 60% of games for both teams, while Feyenoord conceded an average of 1.6 goals compared with 1.2 for AZ. Caution is warranted given Feyenoord’s 50% home clean-sheet rate, but AZ’s attack, averaging 9.33 shots on target away from home, increases the chances of breaching that defense. Therefore, I consider both teams to score more likely than a match in which at least one team fails to score.

Feyenoord average 2.25 goals and AZ 3.00, giving both teams the potential to clear the 1.5-goal line even without an opponent’s contribution. Their average xG stands at 2.08 and 2.61 respectively, although their defenses limit opponents to 0.84 and 1.01 xG, supporting a more cautious forecast of 3.50 total goals. Feyenoord’s last five matches averaged 5.2 goals, while AZ’s fixtures averaged 3.2; the 1.5-goal line was also cleared in 75% of home matches and 100% of away matches. Over 1.5 is therefore the strongest pick, while Over 2.5 offers less of an edge given the difference between Feyenoord’s rate of such matches (25%) and AZ’s (67%).

Feyenoord led at the break in 3 of 4 home matches, while AZ had led at half-time just once in 3 away games. The hosts average 1.00 goals scored and 0.25 conceded before the break, supporting the case for an early lead. Holding on to that advantage is a realistic prospect: Feyenoord won 3 of 4 home matches and, across their last five games, averaged 2.4 goals after half-time compared with AZ’s 1.0. However, the risk of a turnaround remains significant, as AZ have won all 3 away matches and averaged 2.33 goals after the break in those games. Therefore, Feyenoord leading at the break and winning after 90 minutes is the most likely single scenario, although it has only a narrow edge over outcomes involving an AZ win.